供大于求格局延续，尿素跌幅扩大

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that urea would oscillate downward as it returned to fundamentals; this week's view is that the supply - demand pattern has further deteriorated, leading to an enlarged decline in urea prices [3] - Currently, the domestic supply is abundant, with the daily output dropping below 190,000 tons due to some device overhauls. The overall demand is on a downward trend, and the inventory of urea production enterprises has increased to around 1.1327 million tons [3] - The new round of Indian tender results show a total tender volume of 2.03 million tons. Although the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and relaxed export policies have a certain boosting effect on the domestic market sentiment, the domestic demand is still limited in the short term [3] - It is expected that the decline of urea will continue to widen in the short term. The trading strategy is to go short in the short - term for single - side trading, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Analyzes the supply - demand situation of urea, including supply changes due to device overhauls, demand from different sectors such as agriculture and industry, and the impact of Indian tenders and export policies. Proposes trading strategies based on the analysis [3] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply: In the 36th week of 2025 (20250904 - 0910), the utilization rate of coal - based urea production capacity was 81.47%, a 1.61% increase from the previous week; the utilization rate of gas - based urea production capacity was 72.34%, unchanged from the previous week. In Shandong, the utilization rate of urea production capacity was 80.21%, a 3.62% decrease from the previous week [4] - Demand: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250905 - 0911), the average weekly utilization rate of China's melamine production capacity was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from the previous week; the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 37.82%, a 4.68 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. As of September 12, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer production enterprises in Linyi, Shandong was 920 tons, a 5.75% increase from the previous week. As of September 10, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.88 days, a 7.33% increase from the previous period [4] - Inventory: On September 10, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1327 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous week. As of September 11, 2025 (the 37th week), the sample inventory at ports was 549,400 tons, an 11.52% decrease from the previous week [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was stable, and the price of Yulin pulverized coal fluctuated slightly. The urea spot price declined, with a loss of 30 yuan/ton for fixed - bed production, a profit of 100 yuan/ton for coal - water slurry production, and a profit of 300 yuan/ton for entrained - flow bed production. The futures price dropped, with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton and a 1 - 5 spread of - 55 yuan/ton [4]