节前降价收单，尿素延续跌势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that the supply - demand pattern continued to deteriorate and the decline of urea widened; this week's view is that urea continues to decline as prices are cut to receive orders before the holiday [3] - The market sentiment has been average since the weekend, with the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas falling and the trading volume being mediocre [3] - The supply is abundant as the overhauled plants are gradually resuming production and the daily output has increased to over 190,000 tons; the demand is in a "vacuum period" with the agricultural demand ending and the compound fertilizer not starting large - scale production [3] - The third batch of export quotas has been implemented, and urea has returned to the domestic fundamentals. Although the collective sharp rebound of bulk commodities provides some emotional support for urea futures, the order - receiving weakens after the spot price rises, and it is still treated with a volatile mindset in the short term [3] - The trading strategy is to short on rallies in the short - term for unilateral trading without chasing the short; to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 2.1 Core Data Changes - Supply - National: In the 37th week of 2025 (20250911 - 0917), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea was 83.88%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 72.48%, a week - on - week increase of 0.14% [4] - Supply - Shandong: The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 81.23%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02% [4] - Demand - Melamine: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [4] - Demand - Compound Fertilizer: In the 38th week of 2025 (20250912 - 0918), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points [4] - Demand - Urea Demand of Compound Fertilizer: As of September 19, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 370 tons, a decrease of 550 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 59.78% [4] - Demand - Advance Receipt: As of September 17, 2025, the advance order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.18 days, a decrease of 0.7 days from the previous period [4] - Inventory - Enterprise: On September 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [4] - Inventory - Port: As of September 18, 2025 (the 38th week), the sample inventory of urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons [4] - Valuation: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was firm, the price of Yulin pulverized coal rose, the spot price of urea fell, the fixed - bed production had a loss of 50 yuan/ton, the water - coal slurry production had a profit of 40 yuan/ton, the entrained - flow bed production had a profit of 270 yuan/ton, the futures price fell, the basis was - 80 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 55 yuan/ton [4]