供大于求格局不改，甲醇延续弱势

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and methanol continues to be weak. Coal mine production has recovered, with the coal price at the mine mouth continuing to decline due to weakening demand. The domestic methanol supply is continuously abundant, with high and stable methanol production rates. The import volume is expected to increase in September, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, while the MTO device operation rate has rebounded. Although there are some factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the strong rebound of domestic commodities, the rebound height of methanol is limited due to the increase in supply and the record - high port inventory [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Analysis: The coal price has rebounded during the coal demand peak season, but the domestic methanol supply is still abundant. The MTO operation rate is stable, and the port demand is stable. The Middle - East situation is unclear, and the impact of various factors on methanol futures is significant, but the rebound height is limited [4] - Trading Strategies: For single - side trading, short at high levels and do not chase short positions; for arbitrage, stay on the sidelines; for over - the - counter trading, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of September 18, the overall domestic methanol device operation rate was 72.66%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points from last week and 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operation rate was 65.48%, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points from last week [5] - Supply - International: The international (ex - China) methanol production was 991,409 tons, a decrease of 61,600 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 67.96%, a decrease of 4.22% from last week. Multiple overseas devices had issues such as parking and load reduction [5] - Supply - Import: As of September 17, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 35.44 tons during the period [5] - Demand - MTO: As of September 18, 2025, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.24%, an increase of 18.55 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operation rate was 84.89% [5] - Demand - Traditional: The dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate was 6.29%, a month - on - month increase of 29.42%; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate was 82.41%, with a slight decrease in capacity utilization rate this week; the formaldehyde operation rate was 42.92% [5] - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region was 4.59 tons, a decrease of 4.39 tons from the previous statistical date, a month - on - month decrease of 48.89% [5] - Inventory - Enterprises: The production enterprise inventory was 34.05 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60%; the sample enterprise order backlog was 23.38 tons, a decrease of 1.69 tons from the previous period [5] - Inventory - Ports: As of September 17, 2025, the total Chinese methanol port inventory was 155.78 tons, an increase of 0.75 tons from the previous period [5] - Valuation: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi was around 660 yuan/ton. The port - north line price difference was 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference was 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss narrowed, and the basis weakened [5] - Spot Prices: The price in Taicang was 2280 (+30), and the price in the north line was 2100 (+60) [8]