港口库存持续创新高，甲醇延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The coal demand has weakened, leading to a decline in coal prices. However, the domestic methanol auction prices remain firm, and the coal - to - methanol profit is stable at a high level. After the autumn maintenance, the domestic methanol supply is abundant. The international methanol device operating rate is stable, with most devices in Iran restarted, and imports are gradually recovering. As the arrival volume increases, the port inventory is accumulating rapidly. With stable downstream demand and general port demand, methanol should be shorted at high prices but not chased when shorting [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Analysis of raw coal: As of September 10, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions have rebounded, with daily coal production around 4 million tons. The demand has weakened, and the pit - mouth price continues to decline [4] - Supply situation: The price of raw coal has fallen, but the auction prices of mainstream methanol enterprises in the northwest are firm. The coal - to - methanol profit is around 660 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable. The domestic supply is continuously abundant. The US dollar price of imported methanol has dropped, and the import parity is stable. The operating rate of overseas devices is high, and the import volume in September is expected to reach 1.4 billion tons [4] - Demand situation: The traditional downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of MTO devices has rebounded, but some MTO devices are operating at less than full capacity [4] - Inventory situation: The port inventory has increased significantly due to more imports, and the basis is weakly stable. The inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly [4] - Trading strategy: For single - side trading, short at high prices and do not chase short positions. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach. In the over - the - counter market, sell call options [4] Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of September 11, the overall domestic methanol device operating load was 72.75%, a decrease of 1.46 percentage points from last week and 0.52 percentage points from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load was 66.54%, a decrease of 3.10 percentage points from last week [5] - Supply - International: From August 30, 2025, to September 5, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol production was 1,090,107 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, and the device capacity utilization rate was 74.73%, a 0.21% increase from last week [5] - Supply - Import: As of September 10, 2025, 14:00, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 457,100 tons during the cycle [5] - Demand - MTO: As of September 11, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.69%, a 0.31 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin device operating rate was 82.66%, with a slight decline [5] - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde have different changes. The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region increased by 19.10% [5] - Inventory - Enterprise: The production enterprise inventory was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 450 tons from the previous period. The sample enterprise orders to be delivered were 250,700 tons, an increase of 940 tons from the previous period [5] - Inventory - Port: As of September 10, 2025, the total port inventory was 1,550,300 tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period [5] - Valuation: The coal - to - methanol profit in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi is around 660 yuan/ton. The port - northern line price difference is 170 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong price difference is 0 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has weakened [5] - Spot price: The price in Taicang is 2,280 (+30), and the price in the north line is 2,100 (+60) [8]