有色商品日报-20251211

Group 1: Research Views - Overnight copper prices at home and abroad fluctuated weakly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and started short - term Treasury bond purchases. The dot - plot shows one expected 25 - basis - point cut next year. China's November CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline slightly widened. Copper prices are in a pattern of fundamental (inventory) support and short - term macro disturbances, and should be viewed with cautious optimism [1]. - Overnight alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices fluctuated strongly. Alumina supply remains high, and inventory pressure increases. The aluminum price followed the copper - aluminum ratio repair logic, but the follow - up strength is weakening [1][2]. - Overnight LME nickel and Shanghai nickel prices fell. Nickel prices may still fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to macro and overseas industrial policy changes [3]. Group 2: Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On December 10, 2025, the price of flat - copper decreased by 505 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the total inventory (weekly) decreased by 9025 tons [5]. - Lead: On December 10, 2025, the average price of 1 lead decreased by 120 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the inventory (weekly) decreased by 3064 tons [5]. - Aluminum: On December 10, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the total inventory (weekly) increased by 8353 tons [6]. - Nickel: On December 10, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1125 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the nickel inventory (weekly) increased by 1726 tons [6]. - Zinc: On December 10, 2025, the main settlement price decreased by 0.3% compared to the previous day, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 0.17 tons [8]. - Tin: On December 10, 2025, the main settlement price increased by 0.6% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 506 tons [8]. Group 3: Chart Analysis - Spot Premium and Discount: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][13]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - Social Inventory: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][39]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the smelting profit - related trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, and stainless steel 304 from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][44]. Group 4: Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures, mainly researching lithium and nickel [48].