中辉有色观点-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Long - term Hold: Gold, Silver, Copper [1] - Pressured: Zinc, Lead, Tin [1] - Rebound Pressured: Aluminum [1] - Weak: Nickel, Industrial Silicon [1] - Relatively Strong: Polysilicon [1] - Cautiously Bullish: Lithium Carbonate [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision, geopolitical factors, and policy changes have significant impacts on the prices of various metals. For example, the Fed's December interest rate cut and policy stance shift affect gold and silver prices; Indonesia's gold tax increase supports gold prices in the medium - to - long - term. - The supply - demand relationship of different metals varies. Copper is affected by tight copper concentrate supply and green demand; zinc shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand; aluminum has an over - supply situation in alumina and a slowdown in aluminum ingot destocking. - Different investment strategies are recommended for each metal based on their market conditions, such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper, and short - selling on rebounds for zinc [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a key shift in policy stance. Indonesia increased the gold tax rate. There was a short - term "dovish" trading in the market after the Fed's decision, and the Fed announced to start buying short - term Treasury bonds [2]. - Basic Logic: The Fed's policy entered a "data - dependent" waiting mode, with internal differences. Indonesia's gold tax policy reduces the supply of low - value - added gold and provides structural support for gold prices. Long - term gold benefits from global monetary easing, declining US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has a delivery risk event [2][3]. - Trading Logic: Long - term gold has investment value, and for silver, long - term positions can be held while being cautious in the short - term [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, pay attention to the 935 support for domestic gold. Long - term value - based positions should be held. Be vigilant about the high volatility risk of silver in the short - term [3]. Copper - Market Review: The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the copper market was in a high - level shock. The prices of various copper products showed different changes, and there were also changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [4]. - Industrial Logic: The global copper concentrate supply remains tight. The CSPT group plans to reduce the copper ore production capacity load. High copper prices suppress demand, and the consumption is in the off - season. COMEX copper continues to draw global copper inventories [5]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, hold copper long positions and set trailing stops when the price rises. In the medium - to - long - term, be optimistic about copper. Short - term, pay attention to the range of 【90000, 95000】 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton for London copper [6]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc oscillated in a narrow range at a high level. The prices of zinc products showed a downward trend, and there were changes in trading volume, inventory, and basis [7]. - Industrial Logic: The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrate continued to decline, and the supply was expected to shrink. Consumption entered the off - season, and the overseas LME zinc inventory increased while the domestic social inventory decreased slightly [8]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, zinc oscillates at a high level with limited upside space. Sellers can set up short positions at high prices. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of short - selling on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of 【22800, 23300】 for Shanghai zinc and 【3000, 3100】 US dollars/ton for London zinc [9]. Aluminum - Market Review: The aluminum price rebounded under pressure, and the alumina market was weak [11]. - Industrial Logic: The overseas bauxite shipment has returned to normal, and the alumina surplus continues. The electrolytic aluminum maintains a high operating rate, and the domestic aluminum ingot destocking slows down. The consumption off - season effect is obvious [10][12]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, take profits on Shanghai aluminum and then wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of the aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is 【21500 - 22300】 [13]. Nickel - Market Review: The nickel price rebounded under pressure, and the stainless - steel market was also under pressure [15]. - Industrial Logic: The impact of overseas production cuts in Indonesia gradually weakened. The terminal consumption of stainless steel entered the off - season, and the stainless - steel social inventory increased slightly [14][16]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, sell on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range for nickel is 【115000 - 118000】 [17]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2605 opened low and went high, with increased positions and volume, rising more than 2% [19]. - Industrial Logic: The total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. The terminal demand remains strong, and the price has no significant downside space. It will correct recently and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilizing [20]. - Strategy Recommendation: Hold long positions in the range of 【94800 - 97500】 [21]