中辉农产品观点-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Short - term adjustment: Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - Short - term consolidation: Palm oil [1] - Short - term bullish oscillation: Soybean oil [1] - Range - bound oscillation: Rapeseed oil [1] - Upside pressure: Cotton [1] - Short - term rebound: Red dates [1] - Rebound and sell short: Live pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report Soybean Meal - The purchase of US soybeans has started, but the US market has doubts about the optimistic outlook for US soybean exports. Weak export shipment data has led to a consolidation of US soybeans at high levels. This week, the latest soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but were higher year - on - year, with short - term supply sufficient. The US Department of Agriculture's December report on US soybeans was basically flat month - on - month, and the ending stocks were also flat. There was a short - term adjustment, and there was a tendency for a stop - fall consolidation. Short - selling should be cautious [1][4]. Rapeseed Meal - Coastal oil mills have zero rapeseed inventory, zero crushing, and low imports, but port inventories are still higher year - on - year. In the off - season of consumption, spot prices are reduced to destock. There is no major expected change in the fundamentals. It follows the trend of soybean meal, with a short - term adjustment. The short - term trend is treated as a range above 2270 yuan. Attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of China - Canada trade [1][7]. Palm oil - On November, Malaysian palm oil inventory data showed a month - on - month increase, maintaining a stock - building state, and the export of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of December decreased by more than 10% month - on - month. Weak data depressed the futures price, and it closed down yesterday. It is in short - term consolidation [1][10]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil inventory decreased slightly month - on - month but was still higher than the five - year average. It closed slightly down yesterday. Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - growing areas. It is in a short - term bullish oscillation, and a large - range market is expected this week. Attention should be paid to the boost from the palm oil side [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Currently, coastal oil mills have zero operation, zero rapeseed inventory, and zero rapeseed imports in November. The port inventory has continued to decline month - on - month, but there is diversification in imports. The latest data on Canadian rapeseed shows that the 2025 production is higher than market expectations, with a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. Rapeseed oil rebounded technically after hitting a previous low yesterday, and the stabilization needs to be observed. It is in range - bound oscillation [1]. Cotton - The US cotton harvest is nearing the end, and Brazil has started the new - season cotton planting. The proportion of weather - related trading in the market is gradually increasing. The current price is not high, and the ICE market is expected to move in an oscillatory manner. In China, more than half of the new cotton has been inspected, and the sales have been relatively fast. The circulation of low - basis resources in the spot market has decreased, and the cost - side support has increased, but the upward adjustment of the production forecast needs to be noted. The downstream textile enterprises' cash flow has been repaired, and the demand resilience has been reflected. The narrowing of the decline in foreign trade in November has further supported the cotton price, but there is still pressure from high inventory and a dense hedging pressure area. It is under upside pressure [1][12][14]. Red Dates - At the end of the acquisition, the spot price rebound has slowed down the downward trend. With the peak of new - crop listing and the arrival of the consumption peak season, the market volatility will increase. High inventory still exerts obvious pressure on the price rebound. In a situation of loose supply and demand, a generally bearish attitude is recommended. Most of the premium caused by speculation about a large - scale production cut of new - season red dates since early June has been gradually squeezed out. The downward trend of the futures market has slowed down and is approaching the spot cost. The spot price has stopped falling under the cooling background. Short - term rebound opportunities are recommended to be observed [1][18]. Live Pigs - The short - and medium - term market supply pressure is still high, and the demand increase is limited. The spot price is difficult to support. The futures market is disturbed by epidemic prevention and control and macro - sentiment, and there is differentiation in the price difference between contracts. The contract 03 is more likely to be disturbed by short - term funds. For contract 01, the market has started to trade the expectation of the peak - season curing demand and the large - scale slaughter in the second half of the month, and the market volatility is expected to increase. For contract 01, short - term long - position risks need to be avoided. The contract 03 lacks fundamental support but has intense capital games. Attention can be paid to short - selling on rebounds and the 3 - 5 reverse - spread opportunity. Attention should be paid to the spot price follow - up and curing situation [1][21]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 937 million tons, a decrease of 20.60 million tons month - on - month and an increase of 227.49 million tons year - on - year. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 715.52 million tons, a decrease of 18.44 million tons (2.51%) month - on - month and an increase of 168.49 million tons (30.80%) year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 116.19 million tons, a decrease of 4.13 million tons (3.43%) month - on - month and an increase of 48.14 million tons (70.74%) year - on - year. The physical inventory days of soybean meal in 50 feed enterprises were 8.49 days, an increase of 0.32 days from the previous period and 0.77 days from the same period last year. The domestic supply - demand fundamentals have changed little, the oil mill crushing volume remains relatively high, and the soybean meal de - stocking process is slow, which suppresses the rise of the spot basis [4]. Rapeseed Meal - As of December 5, the coastal area's main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, flat month - on - month; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 tons, an increase of 0.01 tons month - on - month; the unexecuted contract was 0 tons, flat month - on - month. The rapeseed meal spot market is dull, downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is cautious, the overall trading activity is insufficient, the delivery process is slow, and the effective demand release is limited. There is no strong driver in the off - season of consumption, and it follows the trend of soybean meal [7]. Palm Oil - As of December 5, 2025 (the 49th week), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 68.37 million tons, an increase of 3.02 million tons (4.62%) month - on - month and an increase of 16.70 million tons (32.32%) year - on - year. From December 1 - 10, the Malaysian palm oil export volume decreased by 16.41% compared with the same period last month. In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.30% month - on - month, imports decreased by 36.12% month - on - month, exports decreased by 28.13% month - on - month, and inventory increased by 13.04% month - on - month [10]. Cotton - International situation: In the US, the new cotton harvest progress is 79%, and 123.7 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with an inspection progress of about 40.2%. In late November, the precipitation in the main cotton - growing areas increased, which was not conducive to the harvest. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is 1.6 - 2.0 million tons, and nearly 4.25 million tons have been purchased under the Minimum Support Price (MSP), but there was still rainfall in the south and central regions in late November, which was not conducive to MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the non - main producing areas have started sowing the 2026 new - season cotton, with expected heavy rainfall in the main producing areas by the end of November [12]. - Domestic situation: The new - cotton picking is basically completed, the inspection volume exceeds 495 million tons, and the sales progress is relatively fast. The total national production is expected to increase by 26 million tons to 768 million tons, and the new - season lint cost is basically locked at 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. In October, the imported cotton volume was 22.3 million tons, almost flat month - on - month and 1.35 million tons higher than the same period. The national commercial inventory increased to 446 million tons, 15 million tons higher than the same period; the Xinjiang commercial inventory increased to 361 million tons, about 40 million tons higher than the same period; the inventory in the main inland provinces increased to 18.27 million tons, 0.16 million tons lower than the same period. The downstream demand has improved seasonally, the export decline in November has slowed down, and the textile and clothing export was 238.7 billion US dollars, a decrease of 5.1% year - on - year and an increase of 7.2% month - on - month [13]. Red Dates - Supply: The acquisition in Hotan, Qiemo, and Ruoqiang has ended, and the acquisition progress in other regions is about 80%. The prices in the producing areas are weak. In Kashgar, the acquisition of grey dates is coming to an end, with little unsold inventory, and jujube farmers have a price - holding attitude. In Aksu, the acquisition is also near the end, with a small amount of remaining inventory, and the price has risen slightly. In Alar, the acquisition is at the end, with little unsold inventory and a price increase [17]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 13,910 tons, an increase of 3,062 tons month - on - month and 270 tons lower than the same period [17]. - Demand: The trading in the Cui'erzhuang market is mainly for new products, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm has increased. The demand in the Ruyifang market is average [17]. Live Pigs - Supply: In November, the breeding side had active slaughter, with fierce competition and high pressure on large - scale enterprises. The overall plan completion was not ideal. In December, the planned slaughter increased by 3.2%. The short - and medium - term supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply pressure is expected to gradually ease as the number of fertile sows decreased to 39.90 million in October [20]. - Demand: With the cooling, the curing and enema activities in the southwest region have increased, the slaughter enterprise's operating rate has rebounded, and the market has gradually entered a situation of both supply and demand growth [20].