中辉能化观点-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Bearish on rebounds [1] - L: Bearish trend continues [1] - PP: Bearish trend continues [1] - PVC: Bearish trend continues [1] - PX/PTA: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation [3] - Methanol: Cautiously avoid short - selling [3] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [3] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish trend continues [5] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continues [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical uncertainties, and cost - end fluctuations. For most products, there are concerns about oversupply and downward pressure on prices, while some products also face weakening demand expectations [1][3][5]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI rising 0.36%, Brent rising 0.44%, and SC falling 1.11%. As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. The EIA expects US oil demand to be 2059 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2058 million barrels per day in 2026. As of December 5, US crude inventories decreased by 1.812 million barrels to 425.69 million barrels [7][8][10]. - Logic: The surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the oil price rebound is bearish. Geopolitical uncertainties in South America have increased, and the US has seized a Venezuelan oil tanker. It is the off - season with supply surplus, as the consumption off - season coincides with the OPEC+ expansion cycle, global floating storage and in - transit crude oil have surged, and US crude and refined product inventories have both increased [1][9]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [435 - 445] [11]. LPG - Market Performance: On December 10, the PG main contract closed at 4232 yuan/ton, a 1.01% decline. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4370 (-80) yuan/ton, 4424 (+32) yuan/ton, and 4440 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [13][14]. - Logic: The cost - end oil price drags down the LPG, and its trend is weak. The crude oil cost is in an oscillatory adjustment with a downward trend. On the supply - demand side, refinery operations have recovered, the commodity volume has increased, and downstream chemical demand has resilience. The inventory situation has improved, with port and in - plant inventories decreasing month - on - month [1][15]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4250 - 4350] [16]. L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8); North China Ningmei was at 6730 yuan/ton (-30); the basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22); and the warehouse receipt was 11701 lots (+0) [18][19]. - Logic: Cost support has strengthened, the futures price has rebounded from an oversold level, but the spot price has not followed up sufficiently, and the futures price has shifted to a premium structure. Domestic operations have seasonally recovered, and the supply side remains sufficient. After late November, the peak season for shed films has gradually ended, and demand support is insufficient. The oil price still has a downward risk in the medium term, and cost support is weak [20]. - Strategy: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L [6750 - 6900] [20]. PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52), the East China drawn wire market price was 6354 yuan/ton (-24), the basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28), and the warehouse receipt was 15518 lots (-150) [22][23]. - Logic: The shutdown ratio has increased, and supply pressure has eased. However, both domestic and foreign demand support is insufficient, and there is still high pressure to reduce inventory in the future. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the oil price still faces a continued downward risk in the medium term. Propylene warehouse receipts have been produced for the first time, and the futures price may be weak [24]. - Strategy: It is expected to be strong in the short term. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term, or go long on the PP processing fee 01. Pay attention to the range of PP [6350 - 6500] and propylene [5850 - 6000] [24]. PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5); the Changzhou spot price was 4510 yuan/ton (-); the 01 basis was -76 yuan/ton (-5), and the warehouse receipt was 127934 lots (+2856) [25][26]. - Logic: Operations have remained at a high level, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is insufficient upward momentum. However, due to low - valuation support and continuous compression of the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit, the downward space for the futures price is limited. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting and contract - changing [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see in the short term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of V [4350 - 4500] [27]. PX/PTA - Market Performance: TA05 was at 4752 yuan/ton, TA11 at 4704 yuan/ton, and TA01 at 4700 yuan/ton [28]. - Logic: The processing fee is generally low, and the PTA device maintenance intensity is high, which has alleviated the supply - side pressure. Downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. The cost - end support has weakened. In the short term, supply and demand are tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December [29]. - Strategy: The 01 contract is under pressure but has bottom support. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels or conduct a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of TA [4600 - 4660] [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: The overall domestic ethylene glycol device operating load has decreased, and overseas devices have also slightly reduced their loads [32]. - Logic: Both domestic and overseas devices have generally reduced their loads, and demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak. Supply and demand have improved in the short term, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in December. The valuation of ethylene glycol is low, but there is a lack of upward drivers. It fluctuates with the cost in the short term and operates in a low - level oscillation [32]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG [3620 - 3700] [33]. Methanol - Market Performance: MA01 was at 2077 yuan/ton, MA05 at 2209 yuan/ton, and MA09 at 2179 yuan/ton [34]. - Logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The domestic methanol device operating load has increased to a high level in the same period. Overseas devices have continuously reduced their loads. Port inventory has been continuously reduced from a high level, but the reduction speed has slowed down. The demand side has changed little, and the cost - end support has weakened. The fundamentals of methanol remain weak [35]. - Strategy: Cautiously bearish on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the opportunity to go long on the 05 contract at low levels. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2035 - 2085] [37]. Urea - Market Performance: UR01 was at 1673 yuan/ton, UR05 at 1736 yuan/ton, and UR09 at 1752 yuan/ton [38]. - Logic: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened. The daily urea output is as high as 192,500 tons. It is expected that the supply - side pressure will ease in mid - December as some gas - head enterprises stop production for maintenance. The short - term demand is relatively good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has slightly decreased but remains at a high level in the same period. Since July, urea exports have maintained a high growth rate. In the context of the "export quota system" and "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices", the urea price has a ceiling and a floor. The domestic urea fundamentals are still loose [39]. - Strategy: Hold short positions cautiously. Pay attention to the range of UR [1620 - 1660] [41]. Natural Gas - Market Performance: On December 9, the NG main contract closed at 4.574 US dollars per million British thermal units, a 6.88% decline. The US Henry Hub spot was at 5.290 (-0.270) US dollars per million British thermal units, the Dutch TTF spot was at 9.460 (-0.173) US dollars per million British thermal units, and the Chinese LNG market price was at 4054 (-49) yuan/ton [43][44]. - Logic: The demand side has entered the consumption peak season. The extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand, and the gas price has strengthened. However, the gas price has reached a high level in recent years, and the upward pressure has increased [45]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of NG [4.425 - 4.912] [46]. Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 10, the BU main contract closed at 2922 yuan/ton, a 0.20% decline. The market prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (+0) yuan/ton, 3150 (+0) yuan/ton, and 3010 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [48][49]. - Logic: The trend is mainly anchored to the cost - end crude oil. Recently, affected by the easing of the Russia - Ukraine geopolitical situation, the oil price has dropped significantly. The South American geopolitical situation has also eased recently, and the asphalt price still has room for compression [50]. - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU [2900 - 3000] [51]. Glass - Market Performance: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16); the Hubei market price was at 1130 yuan/ton (0); the basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16); and the SA - FG01 spread was 162 yuan/ton (+5) [53][54]. - Logic: The daily melting volume has declined again, and there are still plans to cold - repair multiple production lines in December. The current daily melting volume has dropped to 155,000 tons, driving the slow reduction of high - level factory inventory. In October, the real - estate price and volume accelerated their decline, and deep - processing orders remained at a low level in the same period. Weak demand restricts the rebound space [55]. - Strategy: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair in the short term, and the futures price may continue to be strong. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of FG [1020 - 1070] [55]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25); the Shahe heavy - quality soda ash market price was at 1200 yuan/ton (+30), the basis was -39 yuan/ton (+5), and the warehouse receipt was 1354 lots (+0) [57][58]. - Logic: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase at a high level, and industrial hedging has exerted pressure. The fundamentals show a double - reduction in supply and demand, and factory inventory has declined from a high level. Some devices have been overhauled or reduced their loads, and production has slightly declined. The cold - repair of float glass has increased, and demand has declined. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic + float glass has dropped to 248,000 tons. In the medium - to - long term, it is in the high - production - capacity cycle, and the supply will remain in a loose pattern [59]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the 01 soda - glass spread. Wait for a rebound to go short in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of SA [1150 - 1200] [59].