光大期货煤化工商品日报-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The current supply trend is unclear, facing a game between gas - head enterprise load reduction, resumption of production of maintenance enterprises, and new production capacity output. Demand shows regional differentiation, and the inventory has decreased by 4.36%. The market may speculate on the expected increase in export policies next year, but there is no trend - upward momentum for now [2]. - The soda ash market is weak. With the output of Yuanxing Phase II and the launch of Xindu's new production capacity, the supply will increase. The demand has no obvious bright spots, and the downstream mainly replenishes inventory at low prices with limited large - scale reserve intention [2]. - The glass market is also weak. There is no change in the production line recently, and the daily melting volume remains at 155,000 tons. There is an expectation of a decline in in - production capacity. The demand follows up cautiously, and the glass factory still has the motivation to reduce prices to destock [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Urea: On Wednesday, the urea futures price fluctuated widely, with the main 01 contract closing at 1645 yuan/ton. The spot market showed mixed trends, with the mainstream regional price fluctuating between - 10 and + 10 yuan/ton. The daily output on the 10th was 199,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous day. The supply is in a game situation, and the demand has regional differences. The inventory decreased by 4.36% this week. The market may speculate on export policies, and it is recommended to treat it with a wide - range fluctuation mindset [2]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the soda ash futures price continued to weaken, with the main 01 contract closing at 1094 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.93%. The spot price remained stable, and the trading volume was affected by the futures sentiment. The industry's operating rate on the 10th was 80.22%. Supply will increase, and demand has no obvious bright spots. The futures market is in the process of contract roll - over, and the market is expected to be weak [2]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the glass futures price continued to weaken, with the main 01 contract closing at 964 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.13%. The spot price was mostly stable. The daily melting volume remained at 155,000 tons, and there is an expectation of production line cold - repair. The demand follows up cautiously, and the market lacks momentum. The glass factory has the motivation to reduce prices to destock [2]. Market Information - Urea: On December 10, the futures warehouse receipts were 11,228, a decrease of 249 from the previous day, with 720 valid forecasts. The daily output was 199,000 tons, the same as the previous day and an increase of 11,800 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 82.31%, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease compared to the same period last year. The inventory decreased by 56,300 tons, or 4.36% compared to the previous week [5][6]. - Soda Ash & Glass: On December 10, the soda ash futures warehouse receipts were 7,057, a decrease of 724 from the previous day, with 1,563 valid forecasts; the glass futures warehouse receipts were 327, an increase of 303 from the previous day. The soda ash industry's operating rate was 80.22%, remaining the same as the previous day. The average price of the float glass market was 1,097 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day, and the daily output was 155,000 tons, remaining the same as the previous day [8][9]. Chart Analysis The report provides multiple charts, including the closing price, basis, trading volume, and position of urea and soda ash, as well as the price difference between different contracts and the price trend of spot goods. All chart data sources are iFind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [11][13][15][18][20][22][23]. Research Team Introduction The resource product research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, Zhang Linglu, and Sun Chengzhen, who are responsible for different aspects of research and have rich experience and many honors [25].