20号胶，上行动力不足

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The supply - demand fundamentals of 20 - rubber futures show "supply disruptions, weak demand, and rising inventory", and the long - term supply expansion pressure brought by the adjustment of delivery rules may limit the upward space of rubber prices in the future. It is expected that the futures of 20 - standard rubber may maintain a stable and fluctuating trend in the future [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The global rubber market presents a new pattern of "dominated by Southeast Asia and rising in Africa". From January to September 2025, the total output of ANRPC member countries in Southeast Asia reached 8.167 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.60%. Although the supply is generally sufficient during the peak tapping season, there are short - term supply fluctuations due to weather disturbances. In November this year, tapping in southern Thailand was hindered by floods, and local output in some parts of Vietnam was also affected by rainfall or cooling. In China, the rubber - tapping season in southern Yunnan has ended, and Hainan will gradually stop tapping in mid - December. Meanwhile, the African rubber industry has risen rapidly in recent years, and the mechanized rubber plantations in countries like Côte d'Ivoire have significantly expanded production capacity [3]. Demand Side - The downstream demand of the domestic rubber market shows the characteristics of "strong domestic demand, weak overseas demand, and structural differentiation". As the main consumer of 20 - rubber, the operating load of tire enterprises has rebounded recently. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire industry was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points but a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of domestic all - steel tire enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. However, due to the weak recovery of terminal demand and the slowdown of real estate and infrastructure investment growth, there is still a negative impact on 20 - standard rubber. Overseas markets are weak. In October, China's tire exports decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The EU's anti - dumping policy on Chinese tires and the US tariff pressure have reduced the orders of export - oriented tire enterprises, dragging down the external demand for 20 - rubber. From January to September 2025, the total consumption of ANRPC member countries was 8.1833 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28% [4]. Inventory - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.72%. Among them, the bonded inventory was 73,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%, and the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.67%. The continuous increase in rubber inventory highlights the weak supply - demand structure and drags down the rebound of 20 - standard rubber futures [5]. Policy Impact - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has included 20 - rubber substitutes in the physical delivery scope, which significantly expands the delivery supply. It extends the deliverable resources from traditional Southeast Asian rubber to African production areas, effectively alleviating the previous problem of short - term shortage of delivery warehouse receipts, reducing the delivery premium and the fluctuation range of the basis. In the long run, this adjustment will reshape the pricing logic, weaken the short - term price increase logic relying on supply disruptions, reduce price volatility, and create cross - regional arbitrage opportunities [6].