新世纪期货交易提示（2025-12-11）-20251211

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Weak [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Oscillating weakly [2] - Glass: Weak [2] - Soda ash: Weak [2] - CSI 50: Oscillating [3] - CSI 300: Oscillating [3] - CSI 500: Rebound [3] - CSI 1000: Rebound [3] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10 - year treasury bond: Consolidating [3] - Gold: Oscillating strongly [5] - Silver: Oscillating strongly [5] - Logs: Oscillating at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: Oscillating [7] - Offset paper: Oscillating [7] - Soybean oil: Range - bound [7] - Palm oil: Range - bound [7] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound [7] - Soybean meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.2: Oscillating [7][8] - Soybean No.1: Oscillating [8] - Live pigs: Weak [8] - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [10] - PX: Widely oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Weakly oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" in the iron ore market remains unchanged, and the price will oscillate weakly. For coking coal and coke, there is short - term supply pressure, and prices have adjusted significantly. The downstream demand for rolled steel and spiral steel is weak, and prices are at the bottom. Glass demand is weak, and its price depends on cold - repair progress. In the financial sector, the Fed's interest - rate policy and market sentiment affect the performance of stock indexes and treasury bonds. Precious metals are supported by central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks. In the light - industry sector, logs and pulp prices are in an oscillating state due to supply - demand re - balancing. In the oil - and - oilseed sector, the demand for oils is uncertain, and the supply of meal is abundant. The live - pig market is weak, with possible further price declines. Rubber prices may oscillate weakly due to supply and demand factors. In the polyester sector, prices are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply, and demand [2][3][5][7][8][10] Summaries by Industry Black Industry - Iron ore: In 2026, global mines will add 64 - 65 million tons, with a growth rate far exceeding that of crude steel. Current demand is weak, and prices will oscillate weakly. After the Fed's December meeting and the domestic economic - work conference, the macro - sentiment may improve, but substantial improvement will come in the peak season next year. Before the Spring Festival, restocking only provides support at the bottom. One should look for opportunities to short on rebounds [2] - Coking coal and coke: In November, Mongolian coal imports may reach a new high this year, and there is short - term supply pressure. The second round of coke price cuts has started. Although there is restocking demand before the year and coal mines may cut production at the end of the year, prices will find support at the bottom [2] - Rolled steel and spiral steel: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter restocking has not started. The core lies in steel demand. Steel prices will stop falling if production is cut by more than 5% in Q4 2025 and the "anti - involution" policy is implemented effectively. Currently, prices are oscillating at the bottom [2] - Glass: The price in the Shahe area has weakened again, and demand is insufficient. Some glass factories have postponed cold - repair plans. Although inventory has decreased, it is still up by more than 20% year - on - year. Whether prices can stop falling depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial Sector - Stock indexes: The performance of different stock indexes varies. The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market's bullish sentiment has recovered. The mid - term trend continues, and the high - tech industry continues to grow [3] - Treasury bonds: The central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations, and the market trend has a slight rebound. The Ministry of Finance will conduct a roll - over of 750 billion yuan of special treasury bonds [3] Precious Metals - Gold and silver: In the context of high interest rates and globalization restructuring, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting. The Fed's interest - rate policy and geopolitical risks are short - term disturbing factors, while central - bank gold purchases, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [5] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments and national out - of - storage volumes have increased, but demand improvement needs further observation. The supply pressure may gradually decrease, and prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][7] - Pulp: The cost support for pulp prices has increased, but the demand is weak due to the low profitability of the papermaking industry and high inventory of paper mills. Prices are expected to return to an oscillating state [7] - Double - offset paper: The spot - market price is stable. The supply side changes little, and the mid - month publication orders are conducive to paper - enterprise sales. However, weak social demand restricts price increases, and short - term prices will remain oscillating [7] Oil and Oilseed - Oils: The demand for US soybeans for crushing is strong, but the biodiesel policy is uncertain, and exports are weak. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is high, and the domestic oil supply is abundant. With cost support and seasonal factors, oils are expected to continue range - bound trading [7] - Meals: The global soybean inventory is relatively loose. The market has an increasing expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The domestic supply of soybean meal is abundant, and demand is cautious. With import - cost support, prices are expected to oscillate [7][8] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The national average trading weight of live pigs shows a north - up and south - down trend. The settlement price may decline further. The slaughter - enterprise opening rate has increased slightly. The supply is stable, and consumption has increased slightly. The self - breeding and self - raising profit has decreased, and the profit from fattening piglets has increased. The weekly average price of live pigs may continue to decline [8] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The raw - material prices in Yunnan are stable, and the production in Hainan is affected by weather, with a lower - than - expected output. The supply in Thailand has improved, and the supply in Vietnam is tight. Demand support is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Prices may oscillate weakly [10] Polyester - PX: The Fed's interest - rate cut and geopolitical tensions have led to an oil - price rebound. The PX supply is high, but downstream demand has increased, and prices will oscillate widely [10] - PTA: Oil - price fluctuations affect the cost of PTA. Although short - term supply and demand have improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable. Prices will follow cost fluctuations [10] - MEG: There is long - term inventory - accumulation pressure, and the short - term supply has decreased. Prices will oscillate weakly [10] - PR: After the interest - rate cut, there is no new positive news, and the market may stop falling and stabilize [10] - PF: Although the terminal performance is average, the current price of polyester staple fiber is low, and prices may oscillate and consolidate [10][11]