贵金属日评：美联储降息和全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格-20251211

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expected Fed rate cuts and global debt inflation are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium to long term. However, high platinum and palladium prices may suppress downstream demand, leading to price adjustments [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Data Summary - Gold: On December 10, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 951.13 yuan/gram, up 4.44 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai gold T+D was 28,814, a decrease of 7,010 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures was 4258.30 dollars/ounce, up 21.70 dollars from the previous week; the London gold spot price was 4200.15 dollars/ounce [1]. - Silver: The closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 14,377 yuan/kilogram, up 781 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume of spot Shanghai silver T+D was 822,474, an increase of 47,084 from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures was 62.20 dollars/ounce, up 3.05 dollars from the previous day; the London silver spot price was 61.04 dollars/ounce [1]. - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: The price of INE crude oil was 443.70 yuan/barrel, down 2.40 yuan from the previous day; the price of ICE Brent crude oil was 62.52 dollars/barrel, up 0.40 dollars from the previous day. The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (SHIBOR) overnight was 1.30%, unchanged from the previous day; the U.S. 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.1300%, down 0.05 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Important News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one rate cut next year and will buy 40 billion dollars of short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a relatively high level in the next few months [1]. - Trump is conducting a "final interview" for the Fed chair position. Hassett is not yet a certainty, and Bessent still has a chance to succeed. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chair candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks and reiterated that the Fed still has significant room for rate cuts [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Side Logic and Trading Strategies 3.3.1 Gold and Silver - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and is expected to cut rates once in 2026 and 2027, but the market expects two rate cuts in 2026. The Fed will start monthly reserve management purchases of short - term bonds worth 40 billion dollars on December 12, which may gradually slow down to 20 - 25 billion dollars per month later. Germany, Japan, and the UK have launched fiscal stimulus policies, leading to expectations of global debt inflation and fiscal deficit expansion. The 1 - month lease rate of London silver exceeds 6.4%, indicating a tight supply. Global central banks continue to buy gold, and geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the U.S. - Venezuela remain unresolved [1]. - Trading Strategy: Focus on buying on price dips. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3900 - 4100 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 4400 - 4600 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 890 - 920 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 1000 - 1050 yuan/gram. For London silver, focus on the support level around 49 - 54 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 63 - 72 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 11,500 - 12,500 yuan/kilogram and the resistance level around 15,000 - 16,000 yuan/kilogram [1]. 3.3.2 Platinum - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: On the supply side, high deep - mine mining costs, unstable power supply, and production equipment maintenance may reduce global platinum production to 169 tons in 2025, and recycled platinum production may grow slowly to 50 tons. In 2026, global platinum production may reach 174 tons, and recycled platinum production may be 53 tons, with the total supply increasing to 227 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards increase the demand for platinum in traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles, and there is optimistic demand in industrial fields such as hydrogen production. However, there are concerns about a decline in jewelry and investment demand. The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) predicts supply shortages of 26 tons in 2025 and 18 tons in 2026, with an average annual shortage of about 19 tons until at least 2029. High platinum prices may suppress downstream demand [1]. - Trading Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies and hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to the support level around 1300 - 1500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1800 - 2000 dollars/ounce; for domestic platinum, focus on the support level around 335 - 385 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 465 - 516 yuan/gram [1]. 3.3.3 Palladium - Multi - and Short - Side Logic: On the supply side, deep - mine mining, power shortages, labor disputes, and lower ore grades affect palladium production, but the recycling supply is expected to increase from 2026 - 2027 due to the vehicle scrapping cycle in China and globally. In 2025, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 199 tons and 92 tons respectively, with a total supply of 291 tons. In 2026, the production of mined and recycled palladium may be 194 tons and 98 tons respectively, with a total supply of 292 tons. On the demand side, stricter emission standards and the development of new - energy vehicles reduce the demand for palladium in the automotive sector, while the demand in industrial and medical fields is relatively inelastic. The World Platinum Investment Association (WIIC) predicts supply shortages of 8 tons in 2025 and 3 tons in 2026, with the supply - demand situation expected to ease in 2027 [1]. - Trading Strategy: Take profits on previous long positions on price rallies. For London palladium, pay attention to the support level around 1190 - 1390 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 1600 - 1800 dollars/ounce; for domestic palladium, focus on the support level around 305 - 357 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 415 - 465 yuan/gram [1].