蛋白数据日报-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The export of US soybeans is weak, and there is no obvious driving force for speculation in South American weather. The Brazilian premium is expected to face pressure later. The news of delayed customs clearance in China is positive for the near - month contracts and positive spreads. Affected by the news, M05 is expected to be range - bound in the short term and may weaken later [7]. - In the supply side, the USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The yield may be further lowered due to less rainfall in the US production area from August to September. The adjustment of exports has some uncertainties. The 25/26 Brazilian new - crop output is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil and Argentina has different situations, and the weather in the two countries has different impacts on sowing. In the demand side, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand, but the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies may affect the long - term supply. In the inventory side, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January [6][7]. Summary by Related Content Basis and Spread Data - On December 10, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 96, down 16; the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Tianjin was 36, down 16; in Rizhao it was 6, down 6; in Zhangjiagang it was - 4, down 36; in Dongguan it was - 34, down 36; in Zhanjiang it was - 24, down 36; in Fangcheng it was - 44, down 36. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 34, down 28. The M1 - 5 spread was 290, up 45 [4]. - The RM1 - 5 spread was 69. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the factory was 300, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the main contract was 646, down 4 [5]. International and Domestic Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.0269, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium was 143, up 3. The Brazilian soybean crushing margin was 245 yuan/ton [5]. - The report shows the trends of Brazilian soybean CNF premium and imported soybean crushing margin in 2025, as well as the inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans, feed enterprises' soybean meal, and major domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and the开机 and压榨情况 (start - up rate and crushing volume) of major domestic oil mills [5]. Supply, Demand and Inventory Analysis - Supply: The USDA's forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 33 bushels per acre and an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - use ratio of 6.7%). The Brazilian new - crop output in 25/26 is predicted to reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, the Argentine 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. The weather in Brazil and Argentina has different impacts on sowing. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to have seasonal inventory depletion, and the supply of domestic soybean meal in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [6][7]. - Demand: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, supporting feed demand. However, the current loss in the breeding industry and national policies to control pig inventories and weights may affect the long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, and the downstream trading of soybean meal is normal recently [7]. - Inventory: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs, with slow inventory depletion and large spot supply pressure, and are expected to accelerate inventory depletion from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises increased slightly this week [7].