成长与周期共舞

Group 1: Engineering Machinery - Domestic demand for excavators is expected to recover to around 120,000 units in 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6% in the first ten months of 2025 [1][15] - The export of excavators reached 93,800 units in the first ten months of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, with an expected annual growth rate of around 15% [1][29] - The recovery in domestic demand is primarily driven by small excavators, reflecting increased demand for machinery in rural and small-scale water conservancy projects [15][20] Group 2: Shipbuilding and Offshore Engineering - The global shipbuilding industry saw a decline in new orders, with a total of 9,483.31 million deadweight tons in the first ten months of 2025, down 44.67% year-on-year [2] - The shipbuilding price index has shown a general decline, but there is a recovery in orders for bulk carriers and oil tankers in October 2025 [2] - The upcoming replacement cycle in shipbuilding, combined with tightening global environmental policies, is expected to drive a new round of demand growth [2] Group 3: Cyclical Industries - The cyclical sector is showing signs of recovery in 2025, supported by low baselines and the expansion into new industries [3] - The industrial control market is rebounding, with a notable increase in the OEM market, while project-based markets are showing weaker performance [3] - The industrial robot market is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a sustained recovery [3] Group 4: AI and Robotics - The AI sector is driving significant changes in various industries, with a focus on humanoid robots, data center equipment, and vertical applications [4] - The demand for data center backup power sources is increasing due to global capacity shortages, with domestic alternatives expected to accelerate [4] - The introduction of humanoid robots is becoming a reality, with significant production plans announced by companies like Tesla for 2026 [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the engineering machinery sector, particularly companies like SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and LiuGong, which are expected to benefit from domestic and international demand [5][9] - In the shipbuilding and offshore engineering sector, China International Marine Containers (CIMC) is highlighted as a potential beneficiary of the recovery [5][9] - The AI and robotics sector presents investment opportunities in companies like Weichuang Electric and Jack Technology, which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial transformation [5][9]