生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar: The domestic sugar supply is relatively abundant due to the previous import volume increase and the continuous new opening of domestic sugar mills. Both domestic and international sugar are in a state of supply surplus, so the driving force for further rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions and consider selling call options. The support level of SR2605 contract is 5130 - 5150, and the pressure level is 5280 - 5300 [4]. - Pulp: Recent changes in the supply of softwood pulp have increased the volatility of the pulp futures market. After the old warehouse receipts were cancelled, the new warehouse receipts have not increased yet, and the cost has risen, which is bullish for the market. However, the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight, and the inventory of producers in October increased slightly, reaching a high level in recent years. Domestic paper mills are adjusting the raw material ratio to reduce the use of high - priced softwood pulp. The continuity of the recent upward trend needs to be observed, and short - term caution is recommended for further increases above 5600. It is recommended to try a light short position in the 2605 contract, with the upper pressure at 5550 - 5600 yuan and the support at 5280 - 5330 yuan [4][5]. - Offset Printing Paper: The price of raw wood pulp has fallen from a high level, and the offset printing paper futures price fluctuates with the cost, while the spot price remains stable, and the basis has widened. The demand improvement in the fourth - quarter peak season has limited impact on the overall inventory replenishment willingness, and the capacity is relatively abundant. Although the year - end demand still has support, the improvement of paper mill profits and offset printing paper prices is limited. After the basis widens, the support for the futures price may increase. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 4000 - 4100 yuan and the pressure at 4300 - 4500 yuan [6][7]. - Cotton: The USDA December report revised up the US cotton production and ending stocks, and the consumption is still suppressed by high tariffs. The domestic commercial and industrial inventories of cotton have increased month - on - month, indicating sufficient short - term supply, but the year - on - year increase is not significant, indicating limited long - term pressure. The macro - economic outlook is positive, which weakens the downward momentum of cotton prices. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract on dips, with the support range of the 01 contract estimated at 13200 - 13300 and the pressure range at 13800 - 13850 [8]. - Apples: The market sentiment has returned to calm, and the futures price has entered a high - level oscillation. The new - season apple production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are all lower than last year, which still provides support, but the support is expected to weaken. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 2605 contract, with the support range at 8800 - 8900 and the pressure range at 9700 - 9800 [9]. - Jujubes: The jujube futures price rose and then fell on Wednesday. The warehouse receipts have increased to 850 lots. The short - term decline in the 2601 contract has narrowed, and the futures - to - spot price difference has gradually returned. The market's expectation of production reduction has cooled. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 2605 contract on dips around 9000 - 9200 points. The option volatility has rebounded significantly from the bottom, and it is recommended to take profit on the wide - straddle spread combination. The low - level reference range of the 01 contract is 9000 - 9500 points, and the high - level reference range is 9500 - 9700 points [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend reducing long positions. The new - season production, good - fruit rate, and peak inventory are lower than last year, but the lack of consumption growth drivers has increased. The support range is 8800 - 8900, and the pressure range is 9700 - 9800 [19]. - Jujube 2605: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expectation of production reduction may be gradually reflected in the far - month contracts. The support range is 9000 - 9300, and the pressure range is 9500 - 9800 [19]. - Sugar 2601: Recommend holding short positions. The increase in the number of sugar mills in India and the new domestic sugar supply are increasing. The support range is 5240 - 5280, and the pressure range is 5400 - 5450 [19]. - Pulp 2605: Recommend a small short position. The futures price has risen above the price of the main delivery products in the spot market, increasing the potential delivery pressure. The support range is 5270 - 5330, and the pressure range is 5550 - 5600 [19]. - Offset Printing Paper 2605: Recommend temporary waiting and seeing. The raw material price fluctuations affect the offset printing paper price from the cost side, but the spot price is stable, and the futures price may operate within a range. The support range is 4000 - 4100, and the pressure range is 4300 - 4400 [19]. - Cotton 2605: Recommend buying on dips. The macro - economic sentiment boosts the market, but the supply - demand situation has limited changes, and the futures price is expected to continue to operate in a low - level range. The support range is 13300 - 13400, and the pressure range is 14000 - 14200 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased year - on - year due to the delayed listing of new - season apples. As of December 4, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in Shandong and Shaanxi provinces remained stable, and the sales in the sales area were average [20][21][22]. - Jujube Market: As of last week, the physical inventory of 36 sample points increased week - on - week and year - on - year. The acquisition progress in Xinjiang has accelerated, and the order signing volume has increased significantly [23]. - Sugar Market: As of December 10, 64 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 7 less than last year; 26 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 9 more than last year. Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in November decreased by 2.59% year - on - year [25]. - Pulp Market: In October 2025, the chemical pulp shipments of 20 major pulp - producing countries decreased year - on - year, and the shipments to China also decreased. Some pulp mills have shut down or will shut down, which has improved the market sentiment, but the current supply of softwood pulp is not tight [27]. - Offset Printing Paper Market: The inventory days of offset printing paper increased by 0.41% week - on - week, and the increase rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased by 1.53 percentage points, and the overall inventory pressure continued to increase [28]. - Cotton Market: In August 2025, the EU's clothing import volume increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The estimated cotton production in Xinjiang and the whole country in 2025 increased by 12.0% year - on - year. The cotton sowing area in Argentina has reached at least 60%, and the sowing progress is expected to accelerate. The cotton imports of Vietnam and Turkey in November and October respectively decreased year - on - year. The processing progress of Brazilian cotton in 25 reached 82% by early December, and the production in 2026 is expected to decrease by about 7% year - on - year [29][30]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing price of Apple 2605 was 9510, up 45 or 0.48%; Jujube 2601 was 9180, down 55 or - 0.60%; Sugar 2601 was 5328, down 15 or - 0.28%; Pulp 2511 was 5432, down 20 or - 0.37%; Cotton 2601 was 13780, up 40 or 0.29% [30]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples was 4.45 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.45 year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 month - on - month and down 5.30 year - on - year; sugar was 5370 yuan/ton, down 40 month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Silver Star) was 5550 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 700 year - on - year; offset printing paper (Sun Tianyang - Tianjin) was 4450 yuan, unchanged month - on - month and down 450 year - on - year; cotton was 15004 yuan/ton, up 5 month - on - month and down 100 year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (Apple 5 - month basis, Jujube main contract basis, Sugar main - continuous basis, Pulp main - continuous basis, Cotton 1 - month basis) are mentioned [53][54][56][57][60]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple: The 1 - 5 spread is 108, up 28 month - on - month and up 334 year - on - year, expected to oscillate and decline, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. - Jujube: The 9 - 1 spread is 415, up 380 month - on - month and up 145 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 spread is 103, up 7 month - on - month and up 66 year - on - year, expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [59]. - Cotton: The 1 - 5 spread is 20, up 5 month - on - month and up 60 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (top 20 long and short positions, trading volume, net long and short positions of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton) are mentioned [66][68][72][76][78][80][88]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: The number of warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year [89]. - Jujube: The number of warehouse receipts is 850, an increase of 164 month - on - month and 790 year - on - year [89]. - Sugar: The number of warehouse receipts is 396, an increase of 215 month - on - month and a decrease of 3233 year - on - year [89]. - Pulp: The number of warehouse receipts is 199506, a decrease of 3608 month - on - month and a decrease of 163196 year - on - year [89]. - Cotton: The number of warehouse receipts is 2970, an increase of 221 month - on - month and 2004 year - on - year [89]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific data analysis provided, only relevant charts (option trading volume, open interest, put - call ratio, historical volatility of apples, sugar, and cotton) are mentioned [92][96][102].