美联储12月利率决议点评：表态偏鸽，扩表启动

Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on December 10, 2025, aligning with market expectations[5] - This marks the third consecutive 25 basis point cut, with internal divisions evident among committee members[5] - The dot plot indicates a potential rate cut in 2026, with the median forecast remaining in the 3.25%-3.5% range, suggesting one cut[5] Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Post-decision, market risk appetite increased, with major U.S. stock indices rising and bond yields declining[5] - The Fed's decision to initiate Reserve Management Purchases (RMP) involves buying $40 billion in short-term Treasury securities over the next 30 days to ensure adequate reserves[5] - The current liquidity environment is expected to remain ample, reducing the likelihood of short-term capital market disruptions[5] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, which could prompt the Fed to tighten policy again[7] - Global economic conditions may weaken, impacting U.S. corporate earnings and subsequently affecting stock markets[7] - Escalation of geopolitical tensions could lead to increased market volatility and risk aversion[7]