Export Performance - In November, China's export growth exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 5.9%, up 7 percentage points from the previous value[9] - The two-year compound growth rate for exports in November was 6.24%, an increase of 0.69 percentage points compared to the previous value, and better than the Wind consensus estimate of 2.94%[9] - Exports to the EU, Japan, and South Korea were the main contributors to the growth, while exports to the US continued to weaken[10] Key Trade Partners - Exports to the EU grew by 14.83% in November, a significant increase of 13.9 percentage points from the previous value, driven by low base effects and competitive pricing[12] - Exports to Japan increased by 4.3%, up 10.01 percentage points, attributed to Japan's high inflation and competitive pricing of Chinese goods[15] - Exports to South Korea rose by 1.92%, a recovery of 14.97 percentage points, influenced by low base effects and competitive pricing[15] Key Products - High-tech products and machinery exports maintained strong growth, with high-tech products growing by 7.68% and machinery products by 9.65%[18] - Key items such as automobiles, integrated circuits, and LCD modules saw significant export growth rates of 52.97%, 34.17%, and 17.57% respectively[18] Import Performance - In November, China's import growth was 1.9%, which was below market expectations of 2.85% but better than the five-year historical average by 4.28 percentage points[19] - Imports from the EU, Japan, and South Korea showed positive contributions, with respective contributions of 0.16%, 0.44%, and 0.47% to the overall import growth[22] Future Outlook - The report maintains that exports will remain a significant contributor to economic growth, with an expected growth rate of around 2% in 2026[3] - The ongoing strengthening of China-EU cooperation is expected to continue, driven by trade transfer effects amid global trade restructuring[24] - Despite uncertainties in US-China trade relations, stability is anticipated following multiple rounds of negotiations[24]
出口韧性不改,中欧合作深化应具有持续性
China Post Securities·2025-12-11 07:13