证券行业月报：政策持续推动高质量发展，行业估值修复可期-20251211

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "outperforming the market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [35]. Core Insights - Despite a decline in major equity market indices in November, the ongoing capital market reforms are enhancing market stability and investor experience, making the equity market attractive in a low-interest-rate environment. The trading activity remains at a high level, and there is a solid foundation for growth in proprietary trading and brokerage services. The investment banking sector is seeing a month-on-month increase in both IPO and bond underwriting volumes, suggesting further growth potential under supportive policies for equity and debt financing. The current PB valuation of brokerage firms is at a relatively low level compared to the past decade, indicating potential for performance improvement and valuation recovery [1][33]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In November, the securities industry underperformed within the non-bank financial sector, with the securities index declining by 5.83%, lagging behind the CSI 300 and the non-bank financial sector indices by 3.38 percentage points and 2.03 percentage points, respectively. Only three out of fifty brokerage stocks saw an increase [2][12][14]. Business Drivers - Brokerage and Credit: The average daily trading volume in A-shares was 1.92 trillion yuan in November, down 11.5% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year. The margin trading balance at the end of November was 2.47 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.5% from the previous month but up 32.7% from the beginning of the year [3][16]. - Investment Banking: In November, there were 10 IPOs raising 20.5 billion yuan, a 34% increase month-on-month. The total IPOs for the year reached 97, raising 111.8 billion yuan, a 95.5% year-on-year increase. Bond underwriting in November was 1.61 trillion yuan, up 37.3% month-on-month [3][20][21]. - Proprietary Trading: Major equity indices and the total price index of Chinese bonds fell in November, with the CSI 300 index up 15.04% year-to-date and the total price index of Chinese bonds down 2.05% [3][24]. Industry Dynamics - Policy Dynamics: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focused on deepening investment and financing reforms, enhancing the structure of listed companies, and optimizing the investment environment for long-term capital. This includes promoting mergers and acquisitions and improving corporate governance [26][30]. - Market Dynamics: Notable market activities include the planned merger of China International Capital Corporation with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, and the expansion of account management functions for brokerage firms [4][32]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on potential merger and acquisition targets and brokerage firms with relatively low valuations, as the industry is expected to see a consolidation of around 10 leading firms driving high-quality development [33].