CNDL(SZ:000155) Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-12-11 07:15I. Market Data Change Analysis 1. Main Contract and Basis On December 10, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 3,180 yuan or 3.43% from 92,800 yuan/ton on December 9 The basis weakened from -500 yuan/ton to -3,680 yuan/ton, a change of -3,180 yuan [1][6][40]. 2. Position and Trading Volume The position of the main contract increased from 575,421 lots on December 9 to 605,453 lots on December 10, an increase of 30,032 lots or 5.22% The trading volume increased from 512,215 lots to 620,935 lots, an increase of 108,720 lots or 21.23%, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1][6][40]. II. Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 1. Supply Side As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate capacity utilization rate remained stable at 75.34%, the same as on November 28 The market prices of spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate were stable at 8,930 yuan/ton and 4,990 yuan/ton respectively Some new production lines are gradually being put into operation, and it is expected that the domestic lithium carbonate production in December will increase by about 3% month-on-month The Chuanneng Power project reached its designed annual production capacity of 180,000 tons of concentrate at the end of August 2025, and the technological transformation project of Qinghai Jintai Lithium Industry aims to improve efficiency and strengthen the elasticity of the supply side [2][32][42]. 2. Demand Side On December 10, 2025, the price of power-type ternary materials slightly increased from 144,700 yuan/ton to 144,850 yuan/ton, while the price of power-type lithium iron phosphate slightly decreased from 39,095 yuan/ton to 39,085 yuan/ton The cell prices, such as the 523 cylindrical ternary cell, remained stable at 4.75 yuan/piece According to the Passenger Car Association, in November, new energy vehicle retail sales were 1.354 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7% and a month-on-month increase of 6%, and wholesale sales were 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% and a month-on-month increase of 7% It is expected that the sales volume in December will still be strong However, downstream material manufacturers are taking a cautious wait-and-see attitude and mainly making rigid purchases Although the production schedules of cells and cathode materials are still at a high level, they have slightly declined month-on-month The energy storage market has strong supply and demand, but the supply is tight [2][8][42]. 3. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts As of December 5, 2025, the lithium carbonate inventory was 113,602 physical tons, a decrease of 2,366 tons or 2.04% from 115,968 tons on November 28 It is expected that the inventory reduction trend will continue in December, but the magnitude will be slower than in November, reflecting a marginal improvement in the supply-demand balance [3][33][42]. III. Price Trend Judgment and Summary In the next one to two weeks, the lithium carbonate futures price is expected to maintain a range-bound pattern The supply side is steadily increasing, with new production lines being put into operation and technological transformation projects enhancing production capacity elasticity, which may put pressure on prices The demand side is supported by new energy vehicle sales, but the month-on-month decline in downstream production schedules and cautious purchasing limit the upside space The slowdown in inventory reduction indicates a marginal easing of the tight supply-demand balance Considering that the main contract has recently risen while the spot market price has slightly declined, and the weakening basis and expanding trading volume indicate intensified long-short competition, it is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 93,000 - 97,000 yuan/ton, lacking a unilateral trend [4][42][43].