GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2025-12-11 08:03Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) Term Structure: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) Price Factors: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) Loans: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) Debt Replacement: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) Bond Maturity: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].