瑞达期货豆类产业日报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of Douyi is more robust due to factors such as the suspension of trading by traders, the full - completion of Cofco's competitive procurement, and the enhanced reluctance of farmers to sell. With the arrival of cold weather, the terminal market may have a replenishment wave in the middle and late December [2]. - The market doubts the actual procurement scale and shipping progress of Chinese soybean purchases from the US. The USDA monthly report data is neutral to slightly bearish, and the US soybean will continue its weak oscillation. The international soybean price will likely remain in the current low - level range if China's procurement demand does not expand [3]. - The domestic soybean meal spot market is in a stalemate. The inventory is high, and the December crushing volume may be lower than expected. The spot price shows some resistance to decline, and downstream feed enterprises maintain a high - position rolling inventory strategy [3]. - The domestic oil demand is weak. The palm oil import profit has recovered, but the December shipping purchases are few. The soybean oil supply is stable, the inventory is high, and the basis quotation is under pressure, showing a short - term oscillation trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Positions: The closing price of Douyi's futures main contract is 4173 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 12 compared to the previous period; the closing price of Douer's main contract is 3815 yuan/ton, with an increase of 42. The closing price of soybean meal's main contract is 2750 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 4; the closing price of soybean oil's main contract is 8036 yuan/ton, with an increase of 36. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders of Douyi, Douer, soybean meal, and soybean oil are - 22759, 4953, - 484099, and - 107598 respectively [2]. - CBOT Futures: The settlement price of CBOT soybeans' active contract is 1091.25 cents/bushel, with an increase of 4; the settlement price of CBOT soybean meal's active contract is 301.2 dollars/short - ton, with a decrease of 0.1; the settlement price of CBOT soybean oil's active contract is 51.09 cents/pound, with an increase of 0.07 [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - Domestic Spot: The domestic soybean spot price is 3940 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The soybean oil prices in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang, and Zhanjiang are 8410, 8510, and 8550 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 20, 20, and 30. The soybean meal price in Zhangjiagang is 3060 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20 [2]. - Import Costs: The import cost of US Gulf soybeans is 4027 yuan/ton, with an increase of 20; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3949 yuan/ton, with an increase of 11 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Inventory: The annual US soybean production is 115.75 million tons, with a decrease of 1.3 million tons; the US soybean's ending inventory is 7.89 million tons, with a decrease of 0.28 million tons. The annual Brazilian production is 175 million tons, remaining unchanged; the Brazilian ending inventory is 36.36 million tons, with a decrease of 0.9 million tons [2]. - Export and Inspection: The weekly inspection volume of soybeans is 37569 thousand bushels, with an increase of 3614; the weekly export volume is 927844 tons, with a decrease of 100625. The monthly Brazilian export volume is 281.4 million tons, with a decrease of 144.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory and开工率: The port inventory of imported soybeans is 8303640 tons, with a decrease of 75690; the weekly soybean meal inventory is 116.19 million tons, with a decrease of 4.13 million tons. The national port inventory of soybean oil is 113 million tons, with a decrease of 3.8 million tons. The weekly oil - mill operating rate is 56.55%, with a decrease of 3.99; the weekly oil - mill crushing volume is 205.58 million tons, with a decrease of 14.5 million tons [2]. - Profit and Spread: The daily crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang is 121.15 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25.1; the daily crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is - 21.5 yuan/ton, with an increase of 48.75. The daily soybean - palm oil spread is - 170 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 20; the daily rapeseed - soybean oil spread is 1530 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Consumption and Production: The annual total domestic consumption of soybeans in China is 126.8 million tons, with an increase of 5.1 million tons; the annual food consumption of soybean oil in China is 18800 thousand tons, with an increase of 900 thousand tons. The monthly production of feed is 29570000 tons, with a decrease of 1717000 tons [2]. - Livestock Situation: The price of live pigs (outer ternary) in Daxing, Beijing is 11.67 yuan/kg, with an increase of 0.05. The weekly expected profit of pig farming is - 279.82 yuan/head, with a decrease of 32.39. The monthly pig inventory is 436800 thousand heads, with an increase of 12330 thousand heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 39900 thousand heads, with a decrease of 450 thousand heads [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.36; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for soybean meal is 11.5%, with an increase of 0.37. The 20 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 8.68%, with a decrease of 0.29; the 60 - day historical volatility of soybean meal is 9.02%, remaining unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year. Last week, in the Northeast soybean - producing area, due to high raw - grain prices and snow and rain weather, most traders' purchasing activities were blocked, and they suspended trading and turned to a wait - and - see attitude, resulting in difficult outflow of grain sources and a tight supply situation in the sales area [2].