瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Domestically, the supply is tight due to restrictions on Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal imports and oil mills being shut down. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the weakening demand from aquaculture, along with the negative impact of domestic soybean auctions and the substitution advantage of soybean meal, have led to a weakening of demand. The futures price of rapeseed meal has been dragged down by the decline of US soybeans and has been in a weak and volatile state recently [2]. - The rapeseed oil market is also facing a complex situation. The increase in Canadian rapeseed production and the decline in exports have constrained the futures price. But the change in German bio - fuel policy has provided a substitution space for rapeseed oil, boosting its biodiesel consumption. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to a continuous inventory reduction of rapeseed oil, which supports its price. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed for crushing and the abundant supply of soybean oil have limited the demand for rapeseed oil to mainly rigid demand. The rapeseed oil price has rebounded from a low level due to the German biodiesel policy and is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating trend [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9,599 yuan/ton, up 156 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed meal was 2,323 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the closing price of the active contract of ICE rapeseed was 615.3 Canadian dollars/ton, down 18 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active contract of rapeseed was 5,487 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan [2]. - Spread and basis: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was 293 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was 78 yuan/ton; the basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 257 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract was 87 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan [2]. - Positions and warehouse receipts: The position of the rapeseed oil main contract was 76,367 lots, down 13,761 lots; the position of the rapeseed meal main contract was 590,971 lots, up 11,723 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil was - 4,175 lots, up 14,932 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed meal was - 75,885 lots, up 13,249 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,490, unchanged; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,700 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2,410 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of rapeseed oil was 9,818.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed was 7,688.67 yuan/ton, down 20.24 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the oil - meal ratio was 3.96, down 0.04 [2]. - Substitute prices: The spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,160 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1,060 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume was 0 tons, down 115,300 tons; the import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 140,000 tons, down 20,000 tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal was 220,600 tons, up 62,900 tons [2]. - Inventory and profit: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0 tons, down 1,000 tons; the weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 0%, unchanged. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 523 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 0.8 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 33.9 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 19.36 million tons, down 1.9 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 0.7 million tons, down 0.22 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 23.4 million tons, down 0.9 million tons [2]. -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil pickup volume was 0 tons, unchanged; the weekly rapeseed meal pickup volume was 0.45 million tons, down 0.67 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2,957 million tons, down 171.7 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 427.6 million tons, down 67.4 million tons [2]. - Consumption: The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 51.99 billion yuan, up 6.904 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Rapeseed meal options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed meal was 17.03%, up 0.1%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 10.46%, up 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 11.73%, up 0.02% [2]. - Rapeseed oil options: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of rapeseed oil was 16.37%, up 2.78%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 9.57%, down 0.14%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 14%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On December 10 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell for the ninth time in the past ten trading days, but the price remained above the low on Monday. The January rapeseed futures contract closed down 4.50 Canadian dollars at 615.40 Canadian dollars per ton; the March rapeseed futures contract fell 5 Canadian dollars to 626.80 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US soybean is in the export season, with abundant short - term supply. The US still faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. The market is also concerned about China's purchase of US soybeans, and the price of US soybeans has recently fallen from a high level [2]. - Statistics Canada reported that the national rapeseed production increased by 13.3% to 21.8 million tons, higher than the 20.03 million tons announced in September and the market expectation of 21.25 million tons. The export of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly this year, which has continued to constrain the futures price [3]. - The MPOB report showed that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of November increased by 13.04% to 2.84 million tons compared with the previous month, higher than the market estimate of 2.66 million tons. The export of palm oil in Malaysia in the first 10 days was still declining, and the export was still weak, which dragged down the palm oil price. However, the palm oil production in the producing areas will enter the off - season later, and the implementation of seasonal production reduction needs to be watched [3].