瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 11, the JM2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1035.0, down 4.39%. The short - term market sentiment of coking coal has weakened. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, showing a weak short - term trend [2]. - On December 11, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1491.5, down 2.96%. The spot market has seen a second - round price cut. The daily K - line is below the 20 and 60 - day moving averages, showing a weak short - term trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1035.00 yuan/ton, down 35.00 yuan; the closing price of the J main contract was 1491.50 yuan/ton, down 35.50 yuan [2]. - The JM futures contract open interest was 790767.00 lots, down 15390.00 lots; the J futures contract open interest was 47200.00 lots, up 170.00 lots [2]. - The net open interest of the top 20 JM contracts was - 74511.00 lots, down 71691.00 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 J contracts was - 51.00 lots, down 51.00 lots [2]. - The JM5 - 1 contract spread was 101.00 yuan/ton, down 6.00 yuan; the J5 - 1 contract spread was 165.50 yuan/ton, down 8.50 yuan [2]. - The coking coal warehouse receipts were 0.00, down 300.00; the coke warehouse receipts were 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Du Meng 5 raw coal was 952.00 yuan/ton, down 8.00 yuan; the price of Tangshan Grade I metallurgical coke was 1830.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 161.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1430.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port Grade I metallurgical coke was 1720.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1630.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - Grade I metallurgical coke was 1620.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1610.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main contract basis was 338.50 yuan/ton, up 35.50 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the JM main contract basis was 575.00 yuan/ton, up 35.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The daily output of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 27.90 million tons, up 0.80 million tons; the weekly inventory of clean coal from 314 independent coal washing plants was 332.40 million tons, up 11.00 million tons [2]. - The weekly capacity utilization rate of 314 independent coal washing plants was 0.38%, up 0.02 percentage points; the monthly raw coal output was 40675.00 million tons, down 475.50 million tons [2]. - The monthly import volume of coal and lignite was 4405.30 million tons, up 231.30 million tons; the daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 189.80 million tons, down 0.60 million tons [2]. - The weekly inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 470.60 million tons, up 5.60 million tons; the weekly inventory of coke at 18 ports was 245.80 million tons, down 1.40 million tons [2]. - The weekly total inventory of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises was 798.27 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the weekly inventory of coking coal in 247 sample steel mills was 625.25 million tons, down 0.27 million tons [2]. - The weekly available days of coking coal in the full - sample of independent coking enterprises were 12.88 days, down 0.13 days; the weekly available days of coke in 247 sample steel mills were 11.29 days, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of coking coal was 1059.32 million tons, down 33.04 million tons; the monthly export volume of coke and semi - coke was 73.00 million tons, up 19.00 million tons [2]. - The monthly output of coking coal was 4231.51 million tons, up 255.59 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.84%, up 0.89 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants was 30.00 yuan/ton, down 16.00 yuan/ton; the monthly output of coke was 4189.60 million tons, down 66.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 80.14%, down 0.93 percentage points; the weekly blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 87.06%, down 0.90 percentage points [2]. - The monthly crude steel output was 7199.70 million tons, down 149.31 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In November, China's CPI rose 0.7% year - on - year, with the increase expanding by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; the PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, rising for two consecutive months [2]. - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, in line with market expectations [2]. - The global steel production pattern is changing. The production in China, Japan, and South Korea is in a downward trend due to peak consumption, while the production in India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East is growing rapidly. It is expected that the global total steel supply will increase slightly by 0.5% - 1% in 2026 [2]. - The Mexican Senate passed a new import and export tariff bill, which will impose tariffs of 5% - 50% on some products from multiple Asian countries including China starting next year [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - For coking coal, the macro - level sentiment is weak. The import volume of Mongolian coal is high, the capacity utilization rate of mines is declining, and the inventory of the mid - upstream is increasing. The short - term trend is weak [2]. - For coke, the spot price has been cut for the second time. Coking enterprises will implement production restrictions. The demand for coke is weak, and the inventory is neutral to weak. The short - term trend is weak [2].