铝类产业日报-20251211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the alumina market, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand has some resilience. The cost support is weakening, and the 60 - minute MACD shows a red - bar convergence with double lines below the 0 - axis [2]. - For the electrolytic aluminum market, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised. The supply has a slight growth trend, and the demand is transitioning from the peak to the off - season. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis with a red - bar convergence [2]. - For the cast aluminum market, the suggestion is light - position oscillatory trading. The supply is restricted by raw materials and cost, and the demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation. The 60 - minute MACD shows double lines below the 0 - axis with a slightly converging red bar [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Aluminum and Alumina - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,970 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,469 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. - The main - to - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 95 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; that of alumina is - 57 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum are 294,576 lots, up 108,770 lots; those of alumina are 257,111 lots, down 21,743 lots [2]. - Other Indicators - The LME aluminum three - month quotation is 2,862.50 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 520,800 tons, down 2,500 tons. - The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.68, down 0.03. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,965 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; its positions are 17,569 lots, up 166 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 21,890 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price is 2,725 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 21,740 yuan/ton, up 170 yuan [2]. - Basis - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 635 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 60 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 28.51 US dollars/ton, up 3.85 US dollars. The basis of alumina is 256 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina - The alumina production is 786.50 million tons, down 13.40%; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the capacity utilization rate is 86.51%, down 0.45%. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92%; the supply - demand balance is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Shandong, it remains unchanged at 16,700 yuan/ton. - China's import of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum - The import of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - Aluminum Products - The aluminum product production is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57.00 million tons, up 7.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Alloy and Related Products - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons. - The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged; the aluminum alloy production is 168.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - Other Industries - The national real - estate climate index is 92.43, down 0.34. - The automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 13.33%, down 0.28%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.71%, down 0.01%. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main - contract at - the - money IV is 10.88%, up 0.0082; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.65, up 0.0537 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.50% - 3.75%, the third cut this year. It will start a short - term Treasury purchase program of about 40 billion US dollars per month from December 12. The Fed's dot - plot predicts one 25 - basis - point cut in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2]. - China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024; the core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year. The PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month for two consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline widened to 2.2% [2]. - The IMF expects China's economy to grow by 5.0% and 4.5% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, with the forecasts revised up by 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points compared with October [2].