Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-11 08:50Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The stainless steel futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with attention to the resistance at 12,600. The raw material cost has decreased due to the decline in ferronickel prices. The supply pressure has increased as the production profit of stainless steel plants has improved and the expected decline in production is limited. The downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the export volume has decreased, leading to a slight increase in the national stainless steel social inventory. Technically, the short - selling sentiment has decreased as the position is stable and the price has risen [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the spread between the 01 - 02 contracts is - 125 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 16,061 lots, down 3,269 lots; the position of the main contract is 64,258 lots, down 7,223 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity is 61,378 tons, down 120 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The price of 304/2B coil (trimmed edge) in Wuxi is 13,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The basis of the SS main contract is 415 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 22,900 metal tons, up 1,200 metal tons. The monthly import of refined nickel and alloys is 9,939.65 tons, down 18,631.22 tons; the monthly import of ferronickel is 905,100 tons, down 180,200 tons. The SMM1 nickel spot price is 118,850 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) nationwide is 890 yuan/nickel point, unchanged. The monthly Chinese ferrochrome production is 757,800 tons, down 26,900 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.8 million tons, up 37,300 tons; the weekly total inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 585,300 tons, down 12,300 tons. The monthly stainless steel export volume is 458,500 tons, down 29,500 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 490,613,900 square meters, up 36,623,900 square meters. The monthly output of excavators is 30,900 units, down 700 units; the monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 21,900 units, down 4,300 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 9,000 units, down 1,000 units [2]. Industry News - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it. It still expects one interest rate cut next year and will buy $40 billion in short - term bonds. Powell said the bond - buying scale may remain at a high level in the next few months. The labor market is gradually cooling but slower than expected. At the current interest rate, it can wait patiently, and the impact of tariffs is expected to fade next year. China's CPI in November increased by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024, and the year - on - year decline in PPI slightly widened. Hassett said Trump will make a final decision on the Fed chairman candidate in the next 1 - 2 weeks [2].