Ping An Securities·2025-12-11 08:48Overview - The renewable energy sector saw a 42% increase in 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 24.78 percentage points, driven by strong demand for energy storage and the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies [11][14]. Solar Energy - The domestic solar market is expected to face pressure in 2026, with new installations projected to decline to 200-250 GW, down from an estimated 300 GW in 2025, which represents an 8% year-on-year growth [5][28]. - In 2025, China added 252.9 GW of new solar capacity from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 71.8 GW, with a significant portion of installations occurring in the first half of the year due to policy influences [5][18]. - Global solar installations are expected to reach 655 GW in 2025, a 10% increase year-on-year, but demand is anticipated to stabilize or slightly decline in 2026 due to various market challenges [36][37]. - The supply side is undergoing restructuring due to anti-involution policies, with significant reductions in production and inventory pressures observed in the polysilicon market [40][45]. - The BC battery technology is gaining traction, with expected rapid increases in penetration rates, potentially becoming the mainstream technology by 2030 [48][53]. Wind Energy - The domestic wind power market is projected to maintain stable growth, with onshore wind installations expected to remain flat in 2026, while offshore wind installations are forecasted to increase by over 40% to approximately 11.2 GW [5][16]. - The wind turbine market is experiencing a recovery in profitability, supported by stable pricing and expansion into overseas markets, creating new growth opportunities [16][18]. - The development of hydrogen and ammonia markets is expected to provide additional growth avenues for wind turbine manufacturers [5][16]. Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "stronger than market" rating for the renewable energy sector, highlighting key companies to watch in wind energy, such as Goldwind Technology, Mingyang Smart Energy, and Yunda Co., and in solar energy, including LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar [5][7].