Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the far - month contracts of PXTA, suggesting continued optimism [1][2][6][7][27][56][68][85][118][123] Core Viewpoints - The current low valuation of PXTA combined with a production gap period provides an opportunity. The PTA market is in an upward - trending phase, and the price center is expected to rise in the future. The overall situation is expected to improve due to no new production plans for PTA and PX in the future and positive growth in downstream demand. There are long - term opportunities for long positions [5][14] - The market sentiment is currently positive, but there is a lack of substantial favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism. During the off - season, the market is expected to see limited rebound, and it is advisable to focus on long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory Investment Strategy - PX1 - 5 Reverse Spread: The strategy involves the PX601 and PX605 contracts. The cost formula is PX601 - PX605. The target spread is - 200, and the stop - loss spread is 160. It was proposed on August 8, 2025. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread opportunity of PX1 - 5 [8] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions PX - Refineries (Inventory Management): For those with PX inventory worried about price drops, they can sell a certain proportion on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - Polyester Traders (Procurement Management): To build inventory and buy PX at a low price, they can buy short - term call options to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - Polyester Traders (Inventory Management): To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - Polyester Factories (Procurement Management): When in need of PX and worried about price increases, they can buy call options according to the production plan to prevent price surges. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] - Polyester Factories (Inventory Management): To protect inventory from price drops, they can sell on the market. The hedging derivative is PX601P6500, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [10] - Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management): To prevent PX price increases, they can buy call options. The option is PX605, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 6650 [10] PTA - Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops): They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - Polyester Traders (Inventory Management - Seeking High - Price Sales): They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - Polyester Traders (Procurement Management): They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - Polyester Factories (Inventory Management - Worried about Price Drops): They can hedge a small proportion of unsold PTA inventory by short - selling. The hedging derivative is TA601P4450, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 20 [4] - Polyester Factories (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases): They can buy futures or options on the market according to the proportion to prevent sudden price increases. The options are TA601C4800 and TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and entry prices of 30 and 35 respectively [4] - Textile Enterprises (Procurement Management - Worried about Price Increases): They can buy options to prevent sudden price increases. The option is TA601P4550, with a purchase ratio of 100% and an entry price of 35 [4] Fundamental Analysis and Strategies Supply - For PTA, with the planned maintenance of Yisheng and Honggang Petrochemical, the PTA load has recently decreased. The restart and maintenance are proceeding as planned. There is no significant unexpected situation on the supply side, but the subsequent supply pressure remains high due to the new 300 - million - ton Xin凤鸣 plant. For PX, the Zhonghua Quanzhou plant has reduced its load due to a fault, and the Shanghai Petrochemical plant has restarted, with fewer clear maintenance plans in the future [13] Demand - This week, the polyester operating rate has remained at around 90%. The overall terminal data is average. The profits of various polyester products have been compressed to different extents, and the inventory level is generally neutral. Due to previous export - rushing phenomena, the off - season expectations are average. Attention should be paid to the changes in polyester inventory and load during the off - season [13] Spot - Recently, due to the high supply pressure in the far - month, the spot performance has been weak. The basis has not rebounded as much as the single - sided price, and the spot is still at a discount of around 60 to the 01 contract [13] Valuation - Currently, PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton, and the 1.9 - cargo processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. Overall, the PTA valuation is still low, and it has slightly recovered recently with the improvement in sentiment. The recent valuation repair is more reflected in PX [13] Unilateral Strategy - The current market sentiment is positive, but there is no actual favorable news. The improvement in the overall situation is based on long - term optimism about the future production gap of PTA and PX. During the off - season, the valuation is repaired in advance, and there is no substantial improvement in the overall supply - demand pattern from the basis. On the unilateral side, the expected rebound during the off - season is limited, and attention should be paid to long - term long opportunities in far - month contracts [13] PX Analysis PX Load - The Zhonghua Quanzhou 800,000 - ton plant stopped for maintenance on November 25, with an expected two - month maintenance period. A 100,000 - ton PX plant of Fujia Liuhe has been shut down since late March. There were no plant changes this week. The weekly PX output was 748,200 tons, a 0.58% decrease from last week. The domestic bi - weekly average capacity utilization rate was 89.21%, a 0.53% decrease from last week. The Asian weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.12%, a 0.29% decrease [19] PX Profit - The current PXN is around 288 US dollars per ton. After rebounding from the bottom, the valuation is still at a relatively high level and is expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to the strong gasoline crack spread, which is at a relatively high level in the same period of history. There are also reports of the reconstruction of the aromatics logistics from South Korea to the United States, and attention should be paid to whether the subsequent gasoline blending will drive up PXN [29] PX Regional Spread - When the US - Asia spread is too large, there will be exports from Asia to the United States, affecting the Asian supply - demand pattern. Currently, the US - Asia spread has stabilized. After the export of aromatics dropped to zero last October, there was some flow in November and December. The volume of aromatics logistics increased in the first quarter of this year but dropped to zero after April. There has been little logistics in recent months, but there has been some logistics for other aromatics such as pure benzene. Attention should be paid to the subsequent export situation [37] PTA Analysis TA Operating Rate - The current effective operating rate is 75%. There were no changes in domestic PTA plants this week, but the supply increased due to the restart of Honggang Petrochemical last week. The domestic overall output has slightly increased this period. The PTA near - month still faces significant supply - demand pressure, but the situation has started to improve. If the downstream polyester can maintain a high load, the short - term supply - demand is acceptable [48] TA Profit - The current spot processing fee is around 150 yuan per ton. With the commissioning of new plants, the supply pressure is high, and the PTA processing fee has been continuously low. The improvement in supply - demand is more reflected in the valuation repair of PX. As the most over - supplied part of the industrial chain, it is difficult for PTA to repair its valuation, especially with the new Xin凤鸣 plant just commissioned [52] Polyester Analysis Polyester Operating Rate - The current polyester operating rate is 91.8%. The decline in the off - season is not significant, and the polyester factory load has stabilized at around 90%. Currently, the profits of polyester products are stable, and the inventory level is not too high. Overall, the performance during the peak season this year was average. With the arrival of the off - season, the demand is expected to be weak [62] Polyester Profit - Since last year, the profits of polyester bottle chips have been at the lowest level in the same period of history, leading to a continuous slump in the bottle - chip operating rate and a possible delay in the commissioning of new plants, as most planned new plants are for bottle chips. Currently, due to the continuous decline in raw material prices, the profits of downstream products have increased passively [67] Polyester Inventory - Polyester factories have maintained a load of around 90% recently. The inventory of some products is high, but with good sales, the inventory of products has remained at a neutral level. The performance of polyester on the demand side during the peak season this year was average. Due to the previous export - rushing, there was some order pre - empting. With the arrival of the off - season, the situation may not be optimistic [82] Terminal Weaving Analysis Weaving Operating Rate - The current weaving operating rate is 70% [87] Terminal Raw Material Stockpiling - Since the beginning of the month, the overall orders in the weaving market have been characterized by "scarce large orders and scattered small orders." The current clothing consumption demand has contracted, and the home - textile market is divided. The sales of functional fabrics have remained stable, while the conventional medium - and low - count fabrics face significant inventory pressure. Although there are occasional urgent foreign orders, the overall inventory - reduction progress is slow. Some small factories have cut production or shut down, while large - scale enterprises are still operating stably. Looking ahead, the price - negotiation atmosphere for spring orders is gradually heating up, and the market is waiting for further guidance. It is expected that the sales of home - textile products such as fleece will experience a phased recovery driven by promotional events such as "Double 12" [87] Basis and Spread Analysis - The basis reflects the strength of the spot relative to the futures. A negative basis indicates a weak spot market, and vice versa. The monthly spread sometimes provides arbitrage opportunities and can avoid unilateral risks. Attention should be paid to the PX01 contract basis, PX1 - 5 spread, TA01 contract basis, TA09 contract basis, and TA futures 5 - 9 spread [96][99] Position and Trading Volume Analysis - The position volume of the main contract can reflect the virtual - to - real ratio and sometimes affect delivery. The trading volume reflects the activity of the main contract. Attention should be paid to the trading volume and position volume of the PX_01 contract and the PTA_01 contract [113][114][119] Capacity and Cost Summary PX - Supply - side Production Rhythm: There has been no new production this year. As of now, the annual commissioned capacity is 0 tons, with a capacity growth rate of 0%. Yulongdao plans to commission 3 million tons at the end of the year. - Demand - side Production Rhythm: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - Cost Curve: PX is produced by pure oil - based methods, and the production processes are similar. The market generally believes that for PX, PXN around 200 - 300 US dollars per ton is near the cost, and currently, PXN is around 250 US dollars per ton [122] PTA - Supply - side Production Rhythm: As of November 2025, the annual commissioned capacity is 11.7 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 11%. There is no planned new production. - Demand - side Production Rhythm: As of November 2025, the downstream polyester demand side has commissioned a total of 2.85 million tons, including 1.25 million tons of polyester bottle chips. The annual commissioned capacity is 2.85 million tons, with a capacity growth rate of 3%. There are still about 1.5 million tons of polyester capacity to be commissioned this year, and the expected annual commissioning growth rate is around 5%. - Cost Curve: PTA is all oil - based production, and the processes are similar. For most plants, the processing cost is in the range of 200 - 300 yuan per ton, and the current PTA spot processing fee is around 250 yuan per ton [125]
PXTA周度策略20251207：低估值叠加投产空白期，持续看好PXTA远月合约-20251211
Zhe Shang Qi Huo·2025-12-11 08:47