12月美联储议息会议点评：降息如期兑现，重启国债购买

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5-3.75% in December, marking a total reduction of 75 basis points for 2025[1] - The Fed announced plans to begin purchasing short-term government bonds to maintain adequate reserve levels[1] Economic Outlook - The Fed raised GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 1.7%, 2.3%, and 2.0%, respectively, with increases of 0.1, 0.5, and 0.1 percentage points compared to previous estimates[4] - Inflation expectations were lowered, with PCE forecasts for 2025 and 2026 adjusted to 2.9% and 2.4%, down by 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, respectively[4] Labor Market Insights - The labor market's resilience has weakened, with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate slightly increasing since September[2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates reflects concerns over the labor market rather than inflation, which is primarily driven by tariff-related products[1] Internal Fed Dynamics - The Fed's decision faced some dissent, with a 9-3 vote indicating differing opinions on the rate cut[5] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair by Trump could influence future monetary policy, particularly regarding rate cuts[5] Debt and Fiscal Policy - As of November 2025, the total U.S. national debt exceeded $38 trillion, with an average interest rate on outstanding debt rising to 3.36%[6] - The 2026 defense budget is set at $1.01 trillion, reflecting a 13% increase from 2025, which adds pressure to fiscal resources[7] Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, U.S. stock indices rose, and precious metals like gold and silver also saw price increases[7] - The dollar index slightly decreased to around 98.59, while U.S. Treasury yields fell[7] Risks to Consider - Potential risks include a faster-than-expected decline in U.S. employment and inflation rates not decreasing as anticipated[8]