橡胶甲醇原油：偏空情绪占优，能化震荡偏弱

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Rubber: On Thursday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, oscillating and consolidating, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 15,185 yuan/ton, and closed slightly down 0.03% at 15,185 yuan/ton. The premium of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 20 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices are oscillating within a range [6]. - Methanol: On Thursday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, oscillating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,149 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,118 yuan/ton, closing slightly down 0.56% at 2,120 yuan/ton. The discount of the 1 - 5 month spread converged to 46 yuan/ton. Affected by the sharp decline in domestic coal futures prices, the methanol futures started a stage of corrective consolidation [7]. - Crude Oil: On Thursday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2601 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening and moving down, and slightly closing lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 445.8 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 438.2 yuan/barrel, closing slightly down 1.04% at 439.7 yuan/barrel. The expectation of oversupply re - dominated the market, Saudi Arabia lowered its selling prices in Asia, and the bearish atmosphere dominated, so the crude oil futures were running weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Industry Dynamics - Rubber: As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,200 tons or 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. In the week of December 5, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 68.33%, a week - on - week increase of 2.33 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 64%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.87 percentage points. In November 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, a year - on - year increase of 3.8 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 3.0 percentage points. In November, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November 2025, China's heavy - truck market cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9][10][11]. - Methanol: As of the week of November 28, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 84.01%, a week - on - week increase of 0.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%, and a year - on - year increase of 3.53%. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 55,500 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 178,400 tons compared with 1.8452 million tons last year. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the domestic methanol - to - olefin futures market profit was 20 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton and a month - on - month decrease of 195 yuan/ton. As of the week of November 28, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was 1.1675 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 115,400 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 165,700 tons. As of the week of December 4, 2025, the inland methanol inventory in China totaled 361,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 13,900 tons compared with 375,400 tons last year [12][13]. - Crude Oil: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 413, a week - on - week increase of 6 and a year - on - year decrease of 69. The average daily crude oil output in the United States was 13.853 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 38,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 222,000 barrels per day, at a historical high. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) was 425.7 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.812 million barrels and a year - on - year increase of 3.741 million barrels. The U.S. refinery operating rate was 94.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.4 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 5.1 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 2.1 percentage points. As of October 28, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 65,601 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 25,801 contracts and a decrease of 32,247 contracts or 32.96% compared with the average of 97,848 contracts in September. As of December 2, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 146,447 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 20,860 contracts and a decrease of 8,741 contracts or 5.63% compared with the average of 155,188 contracts in November [13][14]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change | Futures Main Contract | Change | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,850 yuan/ton | +150 yuan/ton | 15,185 yuan/ton | -30 yuan/ton | -335 yuan/ton | +30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,095 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 2,120 yuan/ton | -9 yuan/ton | -25 yuan/ton | +9 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 409.6 yuan/barrel | -0.4 yuan/barrel | 439.7 yuan/barrel | -4.0 yuan/barrel | -30.1 yuan/barrel | +3.6 yuan/barrel | [15] 3.3 Related Charts The report lists various charts for rubber, methanol, and crude oil, including rubber basis, methanol basis, crude oil basis, etc., with data sources from Wind and Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [16][29][41].