煤炭2026年度策略报告：煤炭的“韧”与“实”-20251211

Group 1: Supply Constraints and Production Stability - The total coal supply level is expected to remain relatively stable or show slight fluctuations in 2026, with a focus on monitoring overproduction and safety regulations [3][4] - Domestic raw coal production increased by 1.5% year-on-year to 3.97 billion tons from January to October 2025, with a notable decline in imports by 11% during the same period [4][17] - The coal supply growth has entered a low-growth phase, with the overall supply growth rate only 0.8% year-on-year, significantly lower than the 3.3% growth in 2024 [17][19] Group 2: Demand Resilience and Consumption Growth - Coal consumption continues to grow, with total commodity coal consumption reaching 3.57 billion tons, a 0.5% increase year-on-year, while thermal coal consumption remained stable [6][7] - The electricity sector remains the core demand driver, accounting for 63.5% of thermal coal consumption, with significant support from AI and high-end manufacturing sectors [6][7] - Non-electric demand is also growing, particularly in the chemical sector, which saw a 17.4% increase in coal consumption [7][8] Group 3: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Coal prices exhibited a "V-shaped" trend in 2025, with the average price for 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port dropping by 19% year-on-year to 690 yuan/ton [8][9] - The price center is expected to stabilize within a reasonable range due to policy guidance and cost support, with projected prices for 2026 around 730-760 yuan/ton for thermal coal [9][10] - The coal sector's valuation remains at a relatively low level, with potential for upward movement as the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [9][10] Group 4: Investment Opportunities and Strategic Recommendations - The coal sector is viewed as having medium to long-term investment opportunities, particularly for high-quality coal assets that offer stable returns and long-term appreciation potential [9][10] - Key companies to focus on include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, which are characterized by stable operations and robust performance [9][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of considering long-term trends in energy transition and policy adjustments when evaluating coal investments [9][10]