瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20251211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the overall accumulation rate narrowing month - on - month. Overseas shipments to the port remain at a high level, and rubber prices fluctuate downward. Tire companies make purchases according to demand, and the overall procurement sentiment has slightly improved. The warehouse outbound volume has increased slightly month - on - month, but it is still in the inventory accumulation cycle. - The resumption of production by previously - overhauled enterprises has driven up the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises this week. Entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment pace of enterprises is slow, and most enterprises are in a state of flexible production control, which limits the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. As the finished product inventory continues to rise, some enterprises may carry out overhauls or reduce production in the later stage. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,900 - 15,500 in the short term, and the nr2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,000 - 12,300 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,185 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,270 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the 1 - 2 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,915 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 124,546 lots, down 1,503 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 58,112 lots, down 1,198 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,509 lots, down 2,179 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 9,670 lots, up 1,129 lots. The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 53,430 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 60,380 tons, up 101 tons [2] Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole - latex in the Shanghai market is 14,850 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L is 15,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,840 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,830 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,500 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,450 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 10,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 365 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 715 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,810 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 540 yuan/ton, down 224 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheets) is 58.14 Thai baht/kg, down 0.37 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 55.75 Thai baht/kg, down 1.4 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 55 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup glue) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 125 US dollars/ton, down 23.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 43.2 US dollars/ton, up 70.2 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically - specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, up 3,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, down 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.5%, up 0.17 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.51 days, down 0.44 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 44.95 days, down 0.28 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.38%, down 0.69 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 15.87%, up 0.01 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.63%, down 0.61 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.64%, down 0.6 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - As of December 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 488,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,200 tons, an increase of 1.49%. The bonded area inventory was 73,900 tons, an increase of 2.08%; the general - trade inventory was 414,800 tons, an increase of 1.38%. - As of December 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.14%, a month - on - month increase of 1.81 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.49 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.55%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.07 percentage points [2]