瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The capacity utilization rate of urea enterprises was 81.85%, a 0.02% increase from the previous period, with a slight fluctuating trend. There were 2 new enterprise device stoppages and 5 restarted devices during the cycle, and the output fluctuated slightly this week. The reserve demand slowed down in December, but there was still short - term replenishment demand. The demand for urea from the compound fertilizer industry was strong, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was expected to increase steadily. Urea was being shipped to ports in batches, and some enterprises were ending their shipments. The rigid demand from the industrial compound fertilizer, appropriate replenishment of reserve demand, and fulfillment of some export orders led to a continued decline in urea factory inventories. In the short term, the high start - up of industrial compound fertilizers continued to drive demand, and there were still some reserve gaps, so urea factory inventories might continue to decline slightly. The UR2601 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 in the short term [2] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1638 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan; the main contract position was 127,530 lots, a decrease of 15,261 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 5262, an increase of 62; the exchange warehouse receipts were 11,652, an increase of 424 [2] Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1720 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1690 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), 1680 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1700 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan), and 1670 yuan/ton (a decrease of 10 yuan) respectively. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 55 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports were 352.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) and 391.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) respectively [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory was 10.5 million tons, an increase of 0.5 million tons; the enterprise inventory was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 81.83%, a decrease of 1.88%; the daily urea output was 197,900 tons, a decrease of 4,500 tons. The urea export volume was 1.2 billion tons, a decrease of 170 million tons; the monthly output was 6,000,330 tons, an increase of 129,060 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 40.53%, an increase of 3.47%; the melamine operating rate was 61.66%, an increase of 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers was 56 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 129 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizers was 4.3825 billion tons, an increase of 753.8 million tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,100 tons, an increase of 600 tons [2] Industry News - As of December 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 123.42 million tons, a decrease of 5.63 million tons from the previous week, a 4.36% decrease. As of December 11, the port inventory of Chinese urea was 12.3 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons, a 17.14% increase. The export was being shipped to ports, and the shipping rhythm was accelerating. As of December 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3854 billion tons, an increase of 0.03 million tons from the previous period, a 0.02% increase. Some previously overhauled devices had resumed production, driving a slight increase in domestic urea output. Two enterprises' devices were planned to stop next week, and one stopped enterprise's device might resume production [2] Suggested Focus - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]