塑料日报：震荡下行-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - On December 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, and the downstream operating rate was low. The petrochemical de - stocking was slow, and the cost - end crude oil price declined. With new capacity put into production, the plastic supply increased. The demand was weak as the agricultural film peak season ended. Although the government's price - related meeting gave some boost to commodities, the overall plastic supply - demand pattern remained unchanged, and it was expected that the plastic would fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread would fall [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 11, the plastic operating rate was around 90%, a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, with orders decreasing. The petrochemical de - stocking was slow, and the inventory was at a relatively high level in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to increased production in Iraq and falling crack spreads. New capacities were put into production, and it was expected that the downstream operating rate would decline. The trading atmosphere was weak, and the plastic was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread falling [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract decreased by 0.56% to close at 6558 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with an increase of 41542 hands in open interest to 451436 hands [2] - Spot: Most PE spot prices fell, with fluctuations between - 100 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film entered the end of the peak season, with orders and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday was flat at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year, and the de - stocking was slow [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $62/barrel, and the Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene prices were flat at $725/ton and $745/ton respectively [4]