PP日报：震荡运行-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, leading to a drop in crude oil prices. In terms of supply, the new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased recently. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving and other products are starting to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions. The National Development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments and industry associations, held a meeting to study and formulate standards for identifying costs of disorderly price competition, which provided some support for bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remained unchanged, and there was no further macro - level positive news. The spot trading atmosphere was light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new production capacity of plastics being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year. On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level, with the production ratio of standard drawstring materials dropping to around 25.5%. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has dropped. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased. The downstream is entering the end of the peak season, and orders are decreasing. The market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, and traders offer discounts to stimulate transactions. Although relevant meetings have provided some support for bulk commodities, the overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, and the macro - level has no further positive news. The spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity being put into operation this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 6,167 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,232 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,177 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.26%. The position volume decreased by 28,910 lots to 351,293 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,010 - 6,380 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 11, the number of maintenance devices remained largely unchanged, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a moderately low level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.10 percentage points to 53.93% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of the drawstring, remained flat week - on - week at 44.1%, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly week - on - week, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The early - morning petrochemical inventory on Thursday remained flat week - on - week at 690,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Crude oil: The Brent crude oil 02 contract dropped below $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat week - on - week at $745 per ton [6]