棉花、棉纱日报-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Futures Market: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - Spot Market: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - Price Spreads: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - Arbitrage and Options: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]