银河期货苹果日报-20251211

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - This year, apple production has decreased, the proportion of high - quality fruits is poor, and storage is more difficult. Market expectations suggest that the cold - storage inventory data is likely to be low. As of December 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7635100 tons, a decrease of 32400 tons from the previous week. The cold - storage inventory peak this year is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the apple quality is relatively poor. Therefore, the effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong [5]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral market, due to the relatively poor quality of new apples, fruit prices are somewhat supported, but demand is average. Apple prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. For arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the January contract and short on the October contract. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6][7][8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Information - Spot prices: The Fuji apple price index is 109.06, an increase of 1.15 from the previous day. The prices of some varieties such as Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80, etc., remain unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.51, also unchanged [2]. - Futures prices: AP01 is at 9659, up 41 from the previous close; AP05 is at 9505, down 5; AP10 is at 8490, up 10. The spreads between some contracts have also changed, such as AP01 - AP05 increasing by 46, AP05 - AP10 decreasing by 15, etc. [2]. - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different futures contracts has also changed, for example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 decreased by 41 [2]. Market News and Views - Transaction logic: Low production, poor fruit quality, and low cold - storage inventory lead to strong apple fundamentals [5]. - Transaction strategies: Unilateral trading expects high - level fluctuations; arbitrage recommends going long on January and short on October; options suggest waiting and seeing [6][7][8]. - Other data: As of December 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 7635100 tons, a decrease of 32400 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 3100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. The cumulative import volume from January to October 2025 was 111200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. The export volume in October 2025 was about 80400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [5][8]. Related Attachments - The report provides 10 graphs, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrival volumes in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16].