近强远弱持续豆类油脂冲高回落：豆类日报-20251211

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On December 11, the futures prices of beans and oils rose first and then fell. The price of soybean No.1 futures increased by over 1%, and the price rebounded above multiple moving - averages with an increase of 7,000 lots in positions. The price of soybean No.2 futures rose by over 2%, continuing the previous day's rebound trend with little change in funds. The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated at a low level, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, and funds continued to shift to the far - month 05 contract with a slight outflow of funds. The price of rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, pressured by the 5 - day moving average, showing a weak overall pattern with an increase of 11,000 lots in positions. The price of oil futures rose and then fell. The price of soybean oil futures was pressured by the 10 - day moving average with an increase of 25,000 lots in positions. The price of palm oil futures fluctuated strongly, pressured by the 30 - day moving average, and finally closed below the 5 - day moving average with an increase of 24,000 lots in positions. The price of rapeseed oil futures increased by over 1.5%, pressured by the 30 - day moving average with little change in funds [5]. - The recent soybean market has continued the "near - strong and far - weak" differentiation pattern. The core driver lies in the game between tight spot and weak expectations. US soybeans continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the export sales report became a key variable. However, the tariff cut in Argentina squeezed the market share of US soybeans, and the expected bumper harvest in Brazil in South America led to a downward shift in the support of far - month import costs. The domestic market showed a structural contradiction: the operating rate of oil mills declined periodically, and the 100% transaction of soybean auctions confirmed the short - term replenishment demand. The arrival of imported soybeans in December may reach 9.5 million tons, and the state reserve continued to sell off. The 05 contract corresponds to the period of concentrated soybean listing in South America, and the basis has weakened in advance to - 150 yuan/ton. In the short term, soybean meal 2605 continued to fluctuate at a low level, and the near - strong and far - weak pattern continued [6]. - The oil market showed a pulse - type rebound rather than a trend reversal. The core driver was the dual effects of short - covering and technical repair needs. Firstly, after the previous continuous decline of rapeseed oil, short - sellers took profits, triggering a short - squeeze, but the market's expectations for state purchases and anti - dumping tax rate adjustments have not been confirmed, and the sustainability is questionable. Secondly, palm oil followed the rise weakly. Driven by the rebound of BMD, the export decline in Malaysia in the first ten days of December widened, and the output increased month - on - month. The inventory pressure still put pressure on the palm oil price. Finally, soybean oil fluctuated weakly. On the one hand, the state's sale of soybeans supplemented the supply, and on the other hand, the cost support of US soybeans in the outer market weakened. Currently, the high pressure of the total inventory of the three major domestic oils at 2.43 million tons still exists. The short - term market is a technical repair under the disturbance of news. Before the inventory inflection point of palm oil arrives and the rapeseed oil policy is implemented, the oscillation center of the oil sector remains unchanged, and the risk of a rise and then fall should still be vigilant [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - A weather report on Wednesday showed that the initial forecast for March - May 2026 indicated that the La Nina phenomenon would completely dissipate during the Northern Hemisphere spring. In the US, crops in the Midwest/Plains faced a higher risk of drought, and Russia also faced drought risks. There might be excessive precipitation or spring floods in the North China Plain and Indonesia. In the next 5 days, the northern plains, Midwest, and northeastern regions of the US would face a cold snap risk, while the western temperatures would remain high. Heavy rainfall was mainly concentrated in the northwest, and snowfall would occur in the northern plains/Midwest and northeastern regions, with other areas remaining dry. In South America, the Pampas region in Argentina had lower temperatures and higher - than - normal rainfall, but only in the southern part; Brazil had more rainfall and lower temperatures. In Europe, most regions would have higher - than - average temperatures in the next week, and most regions except the UK, Spain, and Scandinavia would have lower - than - normal precipitation. In Asia, most regions would have temperatures close to or slightly lower than normal in the next 15 days, and the weather conditions in the eastern regions varied. It was expected that Southeast Asia and East Asia would have higher - than - normal precipitation [9]. - After being hit by a year of low prices, soaring costs, and a sharp decline in exports, American farmers welcomed President Trump's newly announced $12 billion agricultural aid plan but generally believed that this amount was only a "lifeline" and far from enough to make up for the industry's losses of $34 - 44 billion this year. Farmers' income was under pressure due to multiple factors. The prices of staple grains such as corn, soybeans, and wheat had been low for a long time, while input costs such as labor, fertilizers, and seeds continued to rise, greatly eroding profit margins. Trump's trade policies led to disputes that blocked the main US export markets, and soybeans were particularly hard - hit. China suspended all US soybean imports from May to November, causing American farmers to lose billions of dollars in export orders during the peak export season. Analysts believed that this part of the demand could not be recovered, and federal aid was expected to cover only a quarter of the soybean losses. From a macro perspective, the overall US agricultural economy was weak, and it was generally expected to continue to deteriorate in 2026. Less than half of the farmers were expected to make a profit next year, and cash - flow shortages, insufficient earnings, and inflation pressure were the three major concerns of the loan industry [10]. - The US Department of Agriculture said on Wednesday that private exporters reported selling 136,000 tons of US soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/26 fiscal year. Since October 30, the USDA has confirmed sales of 2.984 million tons of soybeans to China through daily export reports. Chinese and US leaders met in South Korea on October 30 and reached an agreement to ease trade conflicts [11]. - The monthly crushing data released by the US Department of Agriculture on Wednesday showed that the US soybean crushing volume in October reached a record high and was higher than market expectations. In October 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 7.11 million short tons (equivalent to 237 million bushels), 15.6% higher than the 6.15 million short tons (250 million bushels) in September and 9.9% higher than the 6.47 million short tons (215.8 million bushels) in October 2024. Before the report was released, analysts' expected value was 7.027 million short tons (equivalent to 234.2 million bushels), with a forecast range from 229.9 million to 242.5 million bushels and a median of 233.3 million bushels. Due to the US government shutdown from October 1 to November 12, the crushing data for September and October were delayed, and the September data were re - issued on Wednesday. Previously, analysts predicted that the September soybean crushing volume would be 205.4 million bushels. In the past two years, the US soybean crushing industry has undergone significant capacity expansion, mainly driven by the growing demand for biofuels, especially the strong growth in the demand for soybean oil in the renewable diesel industry. Driven by this, the US soybean crushing volume has continued to rise, reaching record highs several times this year. With the successive commissioning of new capacities and the listing of new soybean supplies, October became an important window for crushing enterprises to increase their operating rates. The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) had previously announced that its member companies' soybean crushing volume in October reached 227.6 million bushels, also setting a historical high [12]. Price and Profit Data - The price of imported second - grade soybeans in Dalian was 3,980 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of soybeans was 4,014 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang (≥43%) was 3,060 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean meal was 3,132 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton. The price of fourth - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,570 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of soybean oil was 8,559 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the average price of palm oil was 8,753 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The price of imported fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton; the average price of rapeseed oil was 10,118 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton [13]. - The oil mill crushing profit data showed that in Heilongjiang (domestic), with soybeans at 3,940 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,270 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,660 yuan/ton, the profit was 121.15 yuan. In Dalian (domestic), with soybeans at 4,020 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 81.60 yuan. In Dalian (imported), with soybeans at 3,980 yuan/ton, soybean meal at 3,160 yuan/ton, and soybean oil at 8,470 yuan/ton, the profit was - 20.10 yuan, etc. [14] Related Charts - The report includes charts such as soybean port inventory, soybean盘面压榨利润 (the description seems to be in Chinese and might be "soybean on - disk crushing profit"), soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, with data sources from iFinD and the Baocheng Futures Research Institute [15][17][19]