AI 赋能资产配置（三十）：投研效率革命已至，但 AI 边界在哪？

Core Insights - AI has emerged as a revolutionary tool for investment research efficiency, enabling rapid analysis of vast financial texts and automated decision-making in asset allocation and policy analysis, significantly shortening research cycles [2][3] - The historical reliance and data limitations are the core obstacles for AI to generate excess returns, as AI models are trained on historical data and excel at summarizing the past but struggle to predict future structural turning points lacking historical precedents [2][4] - A "human-machine collaboration" model is essential to address model risks and regulatory requirements, as complete reliance on AI's "black box" decisions faces challenges from model failure and increasingly stringent financial regulations [2][10] AI Empowerment in Investment Research - Major Wall Street firms, such as Citadel, have positioned AI assistants as "super co-pilots" for investment managers, focusing on rapid information processing and automated analytical support [3] - AI enhances macro and policy analysis efficiency by deep processing unstructured data, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of policy context and sentiment [3] - In complex asset allocation frameworks, AI optimizes traditional model weight distributions and strategy backtesting by quickly analyzing vast structured and unstructured data to uncover market volatility patterns and asset interrelationships [3] Limitations of AI - The retrospective learning model of AI limits its ability to identify future structural turning points that lack historical precedents, as emphasized by Citadel's founder Ken Griffin [4][7] - AI's predictive capabilities face fundamental challenges when dealing with assets characterized by long-term trends or non-converging data, such as gold and certain government bonds, which are influenced by complex factors like global liquidity and geopolitical risks [7][8] - AI is susceptible to "hallucination" risks, generating logical associations lacking factual basis, which can manifest in three high-risk forms: fact fabrication, logical leaps, and emotional misguidance [9] Model Risks and Regulatory Challenges - The "black box" nature of AI conflicts with financial regulatory requirements for transparency and traceability, making it difficult to audit decision-making processes [10] - Strategy homogeneity and model failure in extreme market conditions pose systemic risks, as widespread adoption of similar AI models can lead to synchronized trading behaviors that amplify market volatility [11] - The reliance on historical data for model training can result in overfitting, where AI performs well on historical data but fails in real market scenarios due to changes in underlying data structures [9][11] The Role of Human Insight - AI is a powerful cognitive extension tool but not a substitute for human intelligence, which is crucial for defining problems, establishing paradigms, and making value judgments [17][18] - The future investment research paradigm will involve deep collaboration between human insights and AI capabilities, with humans acting as architects, validators, and ultimate responsibility bearers in the decision-making process [18][19]