养殖行业2025年度总结及未来展望

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable investment outlook for the pig farming industry, with expectations of gradual price recovery in the latter half of 2026 after a period of low profitability and cash flow challenges [2][25]. Core Insights - The pig farming industry in China is experiencing a prolonged "pig cycle" with increasing scale among enterprises and farmers, leading to enhanced resilience during downturns. Despite a slight decrease in the breeding sow inventory by the end of September 2025, supply remains within a reasonable range, with expectations of a relaxed supply-demand balance in the first half of 2026, potentially putting pressure on prices [2][25]. - The industry has seen a rise in concentration due to policy drivers and the impact of African swine fever, although it still remains at a relatively low level, contributing to significant cyclical volatility [4][5]. - The report highlights that the pig price fluctuations are influenced by the breeding sow inventory, which serves as a leading indicator for future supply. The current inventory is at the upper limit of the reasonable control zone, suggesting a potential tightening of supply in the latter half of 2026 [5][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Chinese pig farming industry is a major contributor to the livestock sector, accounting for over 50% of both production and value. The market size reached 1.51 trillion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The concentration of the industry has increased, with the top 20 companies accounting for 27.63% of the national output, yet many small farmers still exist, leading to significant fluctuations in production [4]. Production, Output, and Price Analysis - The current pig cycle began in Q2 2022, with a recovery in prices and an increase in breeding sow inventory. By September 2025, the inventory was 40.35 million, still within the reasonable control zone [5][11]. - The report notes that the output of pigs has been increasing, with 2022 and 2023 seeing outputs of 700 million and 727 million pigs respectively, but growth rates are declining [11][10]. Upstream and Feed Price Analysis - The feed industry is crucial for pig farming, with raw material costs comprising 75-80% of feed production costs. Recent trends show a decline in grain and feed prices, alleviating some cost pressures for farmers [16][18]. - The pig-to-feed price ratio is a critical indicator of profitability, with a ratio of 6.00-7.00 indicating a break-even point for farmers. The ratio has fluctuated significantly in recent years, reflecting the volatility in both pig and feed prices [19][19]. Industry Policy - The government has implemented policies to stabilize pig production and control capacity, aiming to reduce the volatility of pig prices and enhance industry concentration [21][23]. - Recent measures include a reduction in breeding sow inventory targets and stricter controls on output weights to manage supply effectively [23][24]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the pig price will gradually rise in the latter half of 2026 due to a tightening supply following a period of capacity reduction. However, challenges remain in cost control related to raw materials and disease management [25][26]. - The industry is expected to stabilize as larger, more efficient farming operations increase their market share, leading to a smoother price cycle in the future [27].