区域性短缺推升逼仓情绪，铜价高位仍未见疲态

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The copper market shows a complex situation with supply increasing and demand being divided. The regional shortage in the London market has pushed up the short - squeeze sentiment globally. The price of copper is expected to fluctuate slightly or move sideways in a low - range in the next one to two weeks due to the combined effects of supply, demand, and macro - economic uncertainties [4][49]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: On December 10, the price of the SHFE main contract closed at 91,880 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton. The basis weakened with a general decline in spot premiums and discounts. For example, the premium copper was reported at 80 yuan/ton on December 10, down 80 yuan/ton compared to December 9; the flat - water copper was at - 10 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan/ton; and the wet - process copper was at - 50 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis dropped from 8.19 dollars/ton on December 4 to 0 dollars/ton [1]. - Position and Trading Volume: On December 9, the LME position decreased slightly to 342,175 lots, 146 lots less than the previous day, indicating reduced market participation. Due to the high market wait - and - see sentiment caused by the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's economic outlook, the trading volume is expected to shrink [1]. 3.1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The expected increase in mine output is seen as AngloAmerican and TeckResources' merger was approved on December 9, forming AngloTeck with an annual copper production of about 1.2 million tons. The smelting capacity has also improved as the slag - selection system of Dianzhong Non - ferrous has doubled its processing capacity. However, the recycled copper raw - material policy has led to production cuts in some Jiangxi enterprises, and the capacity utilization rate of the construction copper rod industry is less than 50% [2]. - Demand Side: The energy - storage sector has shown strong growth, with Samsung SDI signing a supply agreement worth over 2 trillion won for LFP batteries on December 10. SMM predicts that the global copper consumption in energy storage will increase by over 50% in 2025. The new - energy vehicle demand also provides support. But the construction sector has a significant negative impact, with the core downstream orders of construction copper rods decreasing by 3.9% year - on - year in 2025 and expected to drop by 6.2% in 2026 [2]. - Inventory Side: The LME inventory continued to decrease, reaching 28,931 tons on December 10, down 600 tons from December 9. The SHFE inventory increased to 165,675 tons on December 10, up 1,125 tons from December 4. The COMEX inventory rose to 443,047 short tons, an increase of 3,537 short tons from December 4 [3]. 3.1.3 Price Trend Judgment The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is still a certain supply gap. The previous US tariff policy has led to a large amount of electrolytic copper flowing to the US market and locking up circulation, resulting in a continuous decrease in the LME copper inventory. The increase in speculative positions in the futures market has also raised the demand for delivery, and the regional shortage in the London market has pushed up the short - squeeze sentiment globally [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - From 2025 - 12 - 04 to 2025 - 12 - 10, the spot price of SMM:1 copper decreased from 92,270 yuan/ton to 91,750 yuan/ton, a drop of 600 yuan/ton. The premiums and discounts generally declined, and the LME (0 - 3) basis decreased from 8 dollars/ton to 0 dollars/ton. The SHFE price fluctuated slightly, and the LME price decreased. The LME inventory decreased by 2.03%, the SHFE inventory increased, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.48% [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 10, Anhui Xinhai achieved a key breakthrough in the production of ultra - fine copper conductors for new - energy vehicles and robots. Samsung SDI's US subsidiary signed a large - scale LFP battery supply agreement, which is expected to drive the growth of copper demand in the energy - storage sector. The brass rod orders at the end of the year are difficult to improve significantly due to the real - estate downturn and the weak recovery of some sectors. The demand for construction copper rods is expected to decline by 6.2% in 2026, and the overall copper rod output in 2026 is expected to drop by 3.5%. In 2025, the demand for construction copper rods decreased, and the industry's capacity utilization rate was less than 50% [7][8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes multiple charts such as China PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [9][11][13].