聚酯链日报：美联储降息释放积极信号，油价带动PX、PTA反弹-20251211

Group 1: Report Core View - The Fed's interest rate cut sends a positive signal, and oil prices drive the rebound of PX and PTA [1] - The future price of PX may decline or remain weak due to falling oil prices and negative basis, while the price of PTA may be relatively strong due to improved demand and positive basis [56] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On December 10, the PX main contract closed at 6,746.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -81.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,616.0 yuan/ton, down 0.6% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 14.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, on December 10, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 62.12 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 58.39 US dollars/barrel. On the demand side, on December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, and the 15 - day average trading volume was 7.4767 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high. The 700,000 - ton NghiSon - Idemitsu plant in Vietnam reduced its load due to problems with the front - end plant in mid - November and is expected to resume operation as early as this weekend. The 2.2 million - ton Ningbo Yisheng PTA plant has been under maintenance for 5 weeks since November 20 [3] - Terminal Light Textile City trading volume increased slightly, polyester consumption sentiment strengthened, polyester operation maintained resilience, and terminal loom operation declined [4] Polyester - On December 10, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,114.0 yuan/ton, down 1.1% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,275.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 161.0 yuan/ton [5] - The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the Light Textile City increased continuously (from 7.0213 million meters on December 1 to 7.4767 million meters on December 10), indicating a steady recovery in terminal demand. In terms of inventory, based on the data on December 4, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber are relatively low (6.38 days), while those of polyester filament such as POY (16.3 days), FDY (21.2 days), and DTY (24.3 days) are at a high level, which may indicate a risk of filament inventory overstock compared with the average of the past 5 years [5] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price was 6,746 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 391,674 lots, up 49.82%; the main contract open interest was 194,337 lots, up 3.32%. PX spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 832.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in South Korea was 807 US dollars/ton, down 0.12%. The PX basis was - 81 yuan/ton, up 29.57% [6] - PTA futures: The main contract price was 4,616 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 481,145 lots, up 4.19%; the main contract open interest was 608,290 lots, down 7.73%. PTA spot: The CFR price at the main port in China was 607 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The PTA basis was 14 yuan/ton, up 200.00%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, down 6.25%; the 5 - 9 spread was 46 yuan/ton, down 11.54%; the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan/ton, up 83.33%. The PTA import profit was - 639.94 yuan/ton, up 0.22% [6] - Short - fiber futures: The main contract price was 6,114 yuan/ton, down 1.10% from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 246,957 lots, up 39.30%; the main contract open interest was 209,819 lots, up 4.59%. Short - fiber spot: The mainstream price in the East China market was 6,275 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. The PF basis was 161 yuan/ton, up 49.07%; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, down 50.00%; the 5 - 9 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, down 13.64%; the 9 - 1 spread was 86 yuan/ton, up 26.47% [6] - Industrial chain prices: The Brent crude oil main contract was 62.52 US dollars/barrel, up 0.64%; the US crude oil main contract was 58.96 US dollars/barrel, up 0.98%; the CFR price of naphtha in Japan was 563 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of ethylene glycol was 3,650 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester chips was 5,580 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester bottle chips was 5,670 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester POY was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester DTY was 7,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of polyester FDY was 6,780 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread was 88.69 US dollars/ton, down 1.25%; the PX processing spread was 269.33 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the PTA processing spread was 150.16 yuan/ton, up 0.85%; the polyester chip processing spread was 48.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester bottle chip processing spread was - 311.4 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber processing spread was 148.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester POY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester DTY processing spread was 68.6 yuan/ton, unchanged; the polyester FDY processing spread was - 151.4 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total trading volume was 7980,000 meters, up 6.83%; the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, up 2.02%; the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters, up 34.58% [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, unchanged; the loom load rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 63.43%, unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 6.38 days, up 1.59%; the inventory days of polyester POY were 16.3 days, up 10.88%; the inventory days of polyester FDY were 21.2 days, up 4.43%; the inventory days of polyester DTY were 24.3 days, up 3.85% [7] Group 4: Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On December 10, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate unchanged at 3.6%, emphasizing the upward risk of inflation, and the market expected that the interest rate cut cycle might be over - On December 10, Hassett said the Fed had enough room to cut interest rates significantly and would make interest rate decisions based on his judgment - On December 10, the Thailand - Cambodia conflict continued, with 7 deaths and 20 injuries in Cambodia and 4 deaths and 68 casualties in Thailand - On December 10, British media reported that Trump started the final round of interviews for the Fed chairperson this week, and Hassett was leading. Officials also proposed the possibility of Hassett shortening his term - On December 9, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that Russia would restrict the export of gold bars from 2026 - On December 9, Hassett, the favorite to be the Fed chairperson, said that the future path should not be announced in advance and reiterated data dependence - On December 9, the General Administration of Customs announced that in November, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [8] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On December 10, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 7.98 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 6.83%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.55 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 1.44 million meters [9] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts such as PX main futures and basis, PX spot price, PTA main futures and basis, PTA spot price, short - fiber main futures and basis, PX capacity utilization rate, PTA futures monthly spread, short - fiber futures monthly spread, PTA processing profit, industrial chain load rate, polyester staple fiber production and sales situation, polyester filament production and sales situation, Light Textile City trading volume moving average, and polyester product inventory days [10][12][14]