山金期货贵金属策略报告-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Today, precious metals showed high-level differentiation. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed up 0.21%, Shanghai Silver's main contract closed up 3.07%, Platinum's main contract closed down 0.48%, and Palladium's main contract closed down 0.68% [1] - In the short - term, trade - war related hedging has subsided, but geopolitical risks remain. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, leading to a slowdown in interest - rate cut expectations [1] - The Fed cut the interest rate with internal differences, hinting at a pause in action and possibly only one rate cut next year. The current market expects the probability of no rate cut in January 2026 to remain around 80%, and the next possible rate cut may be in April [1] - Precious metals are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term, highly volatile in the medium - term, and to rise step - by - step in the long - term [1] - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of capital, CFTC silver net long positions and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased their positions. In terms of inventory, the recent visible inventory of silver has slightly increased [5] Summary by Directory 1. Gold - Price Performance: Comex gold's main contract closed at $4258.30 per ounce, up 0.51% from the previous day and 0.55% from last week. London gold was at $4200.15 per ounce, up 0.05% from the previous day and down 0.24% from last week. Shanghai Gold's main contract closed at 957.90 yuan per gram, up 0.16% from the previous day and 0.47% from last week [2] - Position and Inventory: Comex gold's position was 459,997 lots (100 ounces per lot), Shanghai Gold's main contract position decreased by 0.25% from the previous day and 2.76% from last week. LBMA gold inventory was 8598 tons with no change, Comex gold inventory decreased by 1.08% from last week [2] - Investment Strategy: For gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [2] 2. Silver - Price Performance: Comex silver's main contract closed at $62.20 per ounce, up 1.70% from the previous day and 5.55% from last week. London silver was at $61.04 per ounce, up 4.10% from the previous day and 4.57% from last week. Shanghai Silver's main contract closed at 14,488 yuan per kilogram, up 0.80% from the previous day and 7.93% from last week [6] - Position and Inventory: LBMA silver inventory increased by 10.60% from last week, Comex silver inventory decreased by 0.07% from last week, and Shanghai Silver's inventory increased by 19.34% from last week [6] - Investment Strategy: Similar to gold, conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended [6] 3. Fundamental Key Data - Fed - related Data: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 3.75%, the discount rate is 4.00%, and the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.65%, all decreased by 0.25% compared to before. The Fed's total assets are $6586.185 billion, down $164.12 billion from before [8] - Inflation Data: The year - on - year CPI is 3.00%, the month - on - month CPI is 0.30%, the year - on - year core CPI is 3.00%, and the month - on - month core CPI is 0.30% [10] - Economic Growth Data: The annualized year - on - year GDP is 2.00%, and the annualized quarter - on - quarter GDP is 3.80% [10] - Employment Data: The unemployment rate is 4.40%, and the monthly change in non - farm payrolls is 11.90 million [10] - Other Data: The geopolitical risk index is 123.60, down 22.89% from before; the VIX index is 15.77, down 6.85% from the previous day and 1.93% from last week; the CRB commodity index is 301.38, up 0.58% from the previous day and down 0.84% from last week [11] 4. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate in the 350 - 375 range in January 2026 is 77.9%. The probability distribution of interest - rate ranges changes over different meeting dates from 2026 to 2027 [12]