原油日报：原油震荡下行-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ agreed to keep the organization's overall oil production unchanged in 2026, and 8 additional voluntarily - reducing oil - producing countries reaffirmed to pause production increase in Q1 next year. With the end of the peak oil demand season, the EIA data shows that the decline in US crude oil inventories is less than expected, and the increase in refined oil inventories exceeds expectations. The US crude oil production is slightly up and near the historical high. The risk premium of Russian crude oil due to sanctions has declined, and the crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the US have continued to fall. Considering multiple factors, the crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern, and the EIA short - term energy outlook raises the expected inventory build - up, predicting that the crude oil price will oscillate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Market Analysis - OPEC+ maintains production in 2026, 8 countries pause Q1 production increase. Demand peak ends, US inventory data is unfavorable, production is high. Russia's risk premium drops, and oil crack spreads fall. Geopolitical issues persist, and the market is in supply surplus. Saudi Aramco sets a low price for Asian exports, and EIA expects weak price oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The main crude oil futures contract 2601 fell 1.04% to 439.7 yuan/ton, with a low of 438.2 yuan/ton and a high of 445.8 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 889 to 28,200 lots [2]. Fundamental Data Tracking - EIA月报: Increases Q4 2025 US production by 400,000 barrels/day, non - OPEC+ supply by 50,000 barrels/day, and global production by 300,000 barrels/day. Reduces Q4 2025 global demand by 90,000 barrels/day. US EIA data: As of Dec 5, crude inventory decreased by 1.8 million barrels (less than expected), gasoline inventory increased by 6.397 million barrels (more than expected), refined oil inventory increased by 2.502 million barrels (more than expected), and Cushing inventory increased by 200,000 barrels. OPEC production: In September, it was down 13,000 barrels/day to 28.427 million barrels/day; in October, it was up 33,000 barrels/day to 28.46 million barrels/day. OPEC+ production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels/day to 43.02 million barrels/day compared to September. US production on Dec 5 week increased by 38,000 barrels/day to 13.853 million barrels/day, near the historical high [3]. Demand Data - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.417 million barrels/day, up 0.31% year - on - year, with a reduced increase. Gasoline weekly demand increased 1.56% to 8.456 million barrels/day, and the four - week average demand was 8.509 million barrels/day, down 1.27% year - on - year. Diesel weekly demand increased 21.22% to 4.158 million barrels/day, and the four - week average demand was 3.708 million barrels/day, up 3.42% year - on - year. Diesel's rebound drove a 4.42% week - on - week increase in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [4].