沪铜日报：如期降息，提振金属-20251211

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on Shanghai copper futures, released on December 11, 2025, by Guantong Futures [1] - It analyzes the market conditions, supply - demand fundamentals, and inventory of copper Group 2: Market Conditions Futures and Spot Market - Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation [1][4] - The spot premium in East China was 0 yuan/ton, and in South China was 60 yuan/ton. On December 10, 2025, the LME official price was 11,626 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +19 dollars/ton [4] Production and Consumption - In November, the operating rate of recycled copper rods was 23.84%, higher than the expected 27.68%, down 2.62% month - on - month and 12.46% year - on - year. The advantage of refined - scrap spread was not obvious due to weak terminal consumption [1] - In December, 4 smelters were under maintenance, with an expected impact of 0.5 tons on production, to be reflected in January output. December production was expected to increase due to previous restarts [1] - The production of copper strips of Steel Union sample enterprises was 14,900 tons, with a weekly capacity utilization rate of 65.65%. Production slowed down due to cost increases and year - end caution [1] - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises declined, with poor shipment and inventory accumulation. If orders remained weak, production would slow down further [1] - After the copper price increase, downstream demand was impacted, with high price - aversion sentiment. Market activity was low, and upstream inventory was accumulating [1] Group 3: Supply - Side Information - As of December 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.03 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.38 cents/pound [6] Group 4: Inventory Information - SHFE copper inventory was 31,500 tons, an increase of 2,530 tons from the previous period [9] - As of December 8, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 99,900 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous period [9] - LME copper inventory was 165,900 tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous period [9] - COMEX copper inventory was 445,200 short tons, an increase of 2,119 short tons from the previous period [9]