沥青日报：高开后震荡运行-20251211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in some refineries and the potential impact on Venezuelan heavy - crude exports, while demand will further weaken as road construction in the north winds down due to the drop in temperature and the increase in southern projects is limited. The current market is cautious about winter - storage contracts [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed results. The road - asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29%, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, future demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, so overall demand is average [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Crude Oil: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the United States have continued to decline, causing crude - oil prices to fluctuate weakly. The market is worried that the US seizure of a large tanker off the Venezuelan coast will affect the export of Venezuelan heavy crude and domestic asphalt production [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 rose 0.92% to 2,960 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,943 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,997 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,329 to 208,301 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 2,930 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract fell to - 30 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to October, the investment in national highway construction decreased 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road - transport industry from January to October decreased slightly to - 4.3% from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October dropped to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social - financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].