有克制的价量双宽：12月FOMC会议点评

Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The FOMC lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.5%-3.75%, aligning with market expectations[1] - The dot plot indicates a forecast of one rate cut in both next year and the year after, but there is significant disagreement among members[3] - There were 2 dissenting votes against the rate cut, with 6 out of 19 participants supporting no rate cut[3] Group 2: Economic Projections - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecasts for Q4 2025-2028 to 1.7%, 2.3%, 2.0%, and 1.9% respectively, compared to previous estimates of 1.6%, 1.8%, 1.9%, and 1.8%[1] - Core PCE inflation forecasts for the same period were adjusted to 3.0%, 2.5%, 2.1%, and 2.0%, down from 3.1%, 2.6%, 2.1%, and 2.0%[1] - The Fed's assessment of downside risks to growth has decreased, while the outlook for unemployment risks has also improved[21] Group 3: Quantitative Easing Measures - The Fed announced the restart of "Reserve Management Purchases" (RMP) to maintain adequate reserve levels, starting at a pace of $40 billion per month[5] - This RMP is a technical operation aimed at increasing liquidity in the money market, distinct from traditional quantitative easing (QE)[13] - The current asset purchase scale is smaller than previous QE measures, with the Fed's balance sheet at approximately $6.6 trillion compared to $3.8 trillion in 2019[7] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. stock markets rose, the dollar index fell, and U.S. Treasury yields declined[35] - The futures market adjusted expectations for rate cuts next year from 2 to approximately 2.24 times, with the year-end policy rate forecast decreasing from 3.159% to 3.082%[35]