从紧平衡到紧缺，铜价延续上行

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to slightly slow down to 3.1% in 2026. Overseas macro themes will return to global central bank monetary policies, the US dollar exchange - rate center, and AI - driven global industrial transformation. The US may see further fermentation of the Fed's easing expectations, while the eurozone will enter a cycle of low - inflation and weak recovery. China's economy is expected to maintain stable growth under the dual - loose tone of monetary and fiscal policies. Global electrification transformation and the AI technological revolution will drive copper consumption growth [4][115]. - In terms of supply, the growth rate of global copper concentrate supply in 2026 may be less than 1.5% due to slow resumption of overseas interrupted mines and limited release of new production capacity. Domestic refined copper production is expected to decline by 2.5% year - on - year in 2026 due to low processing fees and reduced imports caused by a shortage of overseas non - US supplies [4][115]. - In terms of demand, new energy vehicles are expected to maintain strong growth, grid investment will maintain a steady growth rate, the wind and photovoltaic industries will shift from high - growth to high - quality development, and AI computing power demand will drive the data - center construction into a new cycle. It is estimated that the domestic refined copper consumption growth rate will maintain at 2.1% in 2026, and there will be a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic refined copper market [4][116]. - In 2026, copper prices are expected to continue rising under the background of a warming global macro - environment and a tight supply - demand fundamental situation. The main operating range of Shanghai copper is expected to be between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton, and that of London copper is expected to be between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [4][116]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Market Review - The copper price in 2025 showed a trend of first hitting the bottom and then rebounding. In the first quarter, it rose from 73,000 to a maximum of 83,000 due to factors such as the easing of trade concerns and AI - driven optimistic expectations. In April, it dropped significantly due to US tariff concerns. In the second quarter, it rebounded due to China's export resilience and domestic macro - economic policies. In the third quarter, it rose again due to intensified overseas mine - end disturbances. In the fourth quarter, it reached a new high under the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. By December 5, the Shanghai copper main contract rose by 25.8% year - on - year, and the London copper rose by 32.8% year - on - year [11]. - Domestic copper inventory first increased and then decreased in 2025. The social inventory of electrolytic copper in the second half of the year remained at a low level below 200,000 tons. The overall supply - demand structure was in a tight - balance state, and it is expected that the tight - balance will continue in 2026 with a downward trend in absolute inventory [15][16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - US and Eurozone Economic Situations: The IMF expects the global economic growth rate to be 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economy is driven by traditional manufacturing and AI, but trade protectionism may challenge the global supply - chain elasticity. The eurozone economy shows a weak - recovery trend, with the performance of Germany and France diverging [18][19][20]. - Monetary Policies: The Fed may have about two interest - rate cuts in 2026, and inflation is expected to rise moderately in the first half of the year and then gradually return to the 2% target. The ECB is expected to maintain a stable monetary - policy stance, and the risk of inflation rising due to tariff policies is low [21][22][24]. - China's Economic Situation: China's economy maintained stable growth in 2025. In 2026, China will implement expansionary fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, focusing on high - quality development, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will promote new economic growth points [25][26][27]. 3. Copper Ore Supply Analysis - Supply Disturbances and TC Forecast: In 2025, global mainstream copper mines faced frequent supply disturbances, and the actual growth rate of copper concentrate supply was low. The annual long - term contract TC is expected to hit a new low in 2026 [28][32]. - Growth Rate Forecast: Without considering interference factors, the global mainstream mines will contribute about 980,000 tons of new copper - concentrate output in 2025, but the actual growth rate is only 1%. In 2026, the new output will be 533,000 tons, and the actual growth rate may be less than 1.5% [34]. 4. Refined Copper Supply Analysis - Domestic Production and Reduction Plan: China's electrolytic copper production increased in 2025. However, the state will strictly control the expansion of electrolytic - copper smelting capacity, and CSPT members may jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. It is expected that the domestic refined - copper output will decrease in 2026 [44][45][46]. - Overseas Capacity Release: Overseas refined - copper capacity release in 2026 is limited. Some overseas smelters have stopped or reduced production, and the net new capacity is only about 600,000 tons, accounting for 2.1% of the global total in 2025 [47][48]. - Import Volume Forecast: China's refined - copper imports showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing in 2025. In 2026, imports are expected to decline to 3.1 - 3.2 million tons due to high premiums of overseas US - dollar supplies [51][52]. - Scrap - Copper Import and Recycling: In 2025, China's scrap - copper imports shifted from the US to Southeast Asia. In the future, China will strengthen the internal recycling of scrap - copper resources, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow slightly in 2026 [65][66]. - Inventory Situation: As of November 26, 2025, the global visible inventory increased significantly. Overseas inventory had a structural mismatch, and non - US inventory may remain at a low level. Domestic inventory is expected to decline slightly in 2025 [71]. 5. Refined Copper Demand Analysis - Grid Investment: China's grid investment in 2025 was lower than the target. During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the total grid investment will exceed 5 trillion yuan, and the investment growth rate in 2026 is expected to be 3 - 3.5% [75]. - Real Estate: The real estate market in 2025 was in a downturn. In 2026, the industry will focus on high - quality development, but the copper consumption in the real estate sector is expected to decline by more than 10% [76][77][78]. - Air - Conditioning Industry: The air - conditioning industry in 2025 faced challenges such as the uncertainty of national - subsidy policy continuation and weak external demand. The copper consumption growth rate in 2026 is expected to drop to 4 - 5% [79][80][81]. - New Energy Vehicles: In 2025, new energy vehicles maintained strong growth. In 2026, although the purchase - subsidy policy will be adjusted, the sales are still expected to reach 1.85 million vehicles, and the copper - consumption growth rate will drop to about 15% [82][83][84]. - Photovoltaic and Wind Power: The global photovoltaic - installation capacity is expected to decline in 2026. China's photovoltaic - installation capacity will remain between 235 - 270GW. The wind - power growth rate may gradually get out of the trough, but the copper - consumption growth rate in the photovoltaic and wind - power industries is expected to decline [86][88]. - AI Data Centers: The demand for AI computing power is driving the data - center construction into a new cycle. The global data - center scale is expected to reach 95GW in 2026, bringing about 1 million tons of copper - consumption increment [91][92]. - Overall Consumption Forecast: In 2026, new trends will drive domestic refined - copper consumption growth, and the consumption growth rate is expected to be 2.1% [95]. 6. 2026 Market Outlook - Macroeconomic and Fundamental Factors: The global economic growth rate will slow down slightly in 2026. The supply of global copper concentrate will be tight, and domestic refined - copper supply will decline. The demand for refined copper will maintain growth, resulting in a supply gap of 630,000 tons in the domestic market [115][116]. - Price Forecast: Copper prices are expected to continue rising in 2026, with the main operating range of Shanghai copper between 83,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton and that of London copper between 10,300 - 12,500 US dollars/ton [116].