Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures market is strong, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% to 98,880 yuan/ton. The market continues to destock, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. With the expected increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations, there is strong demand expectation. The operation strategy is to go long on dips [1][2][3]. - The polysilicon futures market is also strong, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% to 55,765 yuan/ton. Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price is expected to remain strong. Although the supply side has seasonal production cuts, the inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend may be oscillatingly strong [7]. - The industrial silicon futures market is oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% to 8,230 yuan/ton. Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [11][14]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate - Market Trend: The lithium carbonate futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 3.02% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 98,880 yuan/ton [1]. - Core Logic: The weekly production and inventory data show a continuous destocking pattern. In November, the inventory decreased by over 10,000 tons, and since December, the inventory has been decreasing by 2,000 - 3,000 tons per week, indicating strong downstream demand. The low inventory of downstream lithium iron phosphate companies and the slower - than - expected resumption of upstream lithium mines support the futures price. There are also strong demand expectations from the increase in CATL's production in Q1 and the acceleration of North American energy storage system installations [1][2][3]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of lithium carbonate futures continues to rise significantly, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:15, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the main 2605 contract is a red - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 92,160 yuan/ton [3]. - Strategy Suggestion: In the context of "strong reality and strong expectation", the operation strategy is to go long on dips. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [3]. Polysilicon - Market Trend: The polysilicon futures are strongly trending, with the main 2605 contract up 2.13% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 55,765 yuan/ton [7]. - Core Logic: Affected by the establishment of the joint platform, the price continues to be strong. The establishment of the purchasing platform indicates the certainty of future production cuts, and it is difficult for the price to weaken in the future. Fundamentally, there are seasonal production cuts on the supply side, but the inventory is accumulating. The downstream industry demand is weak, and the production schedules have declined. The warehouse receipts increased slightly today, and the changes need to be continuously monitored [7]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of polysilicon futures has little change, and the market is still controlled by bulls. The main 2605 contract has a standard "Three - Line Resonance Method" combined with a volume - increasing upward entry opportunity at 9:30, with a profit - loss ratio of 1:2. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a red - line, red - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a strong red - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 52,240 yuan/ton [7]. - Strategy Suggestion: The polysilicon market may maintain an oscillatingly strong pattern in the short term. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [7]. Industrial Silicon - Market Trend: The industrial silicon futures are oscillating. The 2605 contract fell 0.03% from the previous trading day's closing price, reaching 8,230 yuan/ton [11]. - Core Logic: Affected by the production cut expectations of polysilicon and silicone, the futures price declined at the opening and then oscillated. Fundamentally, the situation of weak supply and demand continues, with the inventory at a three - year high and continuous accumulation for three weeks. Coupled with the downstream production cut expectations, the overall restocking is limited [11][14]. - Technical Analysis: The overall open interest of industrial silicon futures has dropped significantly, and the downward driving force has weakened. It is currently in the position - shifting period, and attention should be paid to the 05 contract. The 5 - minute cycle of the 2605 contract is a green - line, blue - band, red - ladder pattern, and the overnight 2 - hour cycle is a weak green - ladder line, with a long - short dividing water level of 8,940 yuan/ton [14]. - Strategy Suggestion: After the continuous decline of the futures price, the downward space on the disk is relatively limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. It is mainly affected by the downstream polysilicon policy, and attention should be paid to periodic emotional disturbances. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator during the 8:30 morning live broadcast [14].
天富期货碳酸锂、多晶硅、工业硅日报-20251211
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-12-11 12:39