天富期货菜油劲升、棉花突破上行

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The agricultural products sector shows mixed trends. Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly, cotton has broken through and moved upward, while hog prices remain weak. Different varieties have different influencing factors and market outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Agricultural Products Sector Overview - Rapeseed oil has rebounded strongly due to customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and potential overseas demand growth. Cotton has broken through and moved upward because of strong downstream demand. Hog prices are weak as supply growth exceeds demand growth [1]. 2. Variety Strategy Tracking (1) Rapeseed Oil: Strong Rise - Focus: The rapeseed oil led the overall rise in the oil and fat sector. The main 2605 contract rebounded strongly, driven by customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports and expected overseas demand growth. - Reasons: Customs inspections on non - GMO rapeseed oil imports led to some port rejections, boosting bullish sentiment. Technical oversold conditions caused a rebound. Germany's new bill may increase rapeseed oil demand. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory decreased, with the inventory at 40.6 million tons at the end of the 49th week, a 4.47% week - on - week decline. Palm oil and soybean oil also rebounded [2]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of rapeseed oil has strengthened technically. Look for support levels to go long with a light position. Close short positions in palm oil and conduct short - term trading [2]. (2) Soybean Meal: Near - term Strong, Long - term Weak - Focus: Soybean meal contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The January contract rose due to stronger raw materials, while the 2605 contract remained weak. - Reasons: Abundant domestic imported soybeans. Rumors of extended customs clearance time for imported soybeans drove up the price of soybean No. 2 futures and near - term soybean meal contracts. The 2605 contract is under pressure as it corresponds to the peak period of South American soybean imports next year [3]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of soybean meal is technically weak. Continue to hold short positions with a light position [3]. (3) Hogs: Weak Downward - Focus: The main 2603 contract of hogs is moving downward weakly due to abundant supply. - Reasons: High hog inventory, scale pig enterprises' year - end sales push, and concentrated出栏 of second - fattened and back - pressured hogs lead to sufficient supply. Although terminal consumption such as southern bacon - making and northern sausage - making increases, the increase in consumption is less than the increase in supply [6]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of hogs is weak. Enter short positions for the short - term and set stop - losses [6]. (4) Eggs: Near - term Weak, Long - term Strong - Focus: The main 2603 contract of eggs fluctuates narrowly, and the weak trend remains unchanged. - Reasons: High laying - hen inventory leads to high supply pressure. Although market demand increases near the end of the year, the latest data shows a 0.70% week - on - week decline in old - hen出栏 as of December 4. There are still uncertainties in capacity reduction [7][9]. - Strategy: The 2603 contract of eggs is technically weak. Short with a light position [9]. (5) Sugar: Oscillating Downward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar oscillates at a low level due to the supply pressure of new sugar. - Reasons: Seasonal supply pressure of sugar is high as 64 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started crushing. Although end - of - year stocking demand is approaching, it limits the downward space of sugar prices [10]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of sugar is trading sideways at a low level. Close short positions and conduct short - term trading [10]. (6) Cotton: Breaking Upward - Focus: The main 2605 contract of cotton has broken through and moved upward, supported by demand resilience. - Reasons: China's cotton harvesting is almost finished. As of December 4, the national cotton sales rate is 37.3%, a 21.9 - percentage - point year - on - year increase, indicating strong downstream consumption. Improved Sino - US economic and trade relations are beneficial for cotton textile exports. Xinjiang textile enterprises have high operating rates and stable profits, with year - end restocking needs [12]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract of cotton has opened up upward space. Go long on dips [12].