——2025年12月11日利率债观察：降准降息或将较快落地

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The central economic work conference held on December 11 - 12, 2025, requires "flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts." It is expected that there is a high probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut within the next one or two months [1]. - Reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have common effects and are subject to common constraints. Additionally, replenishing the liquidity of the banking system is a unique effect of reserve requirement ratio cuts, while interest rate cuts are also restricted by the net interest margin of banks. Different policy tools should be selected according to the economic and financial situation and the operation of the financial market at different stages [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Effects and Constraints of Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Common effects: Maintain relatively loose social financing conditions and promote stable economic growth. The mechanisms of the two tools are different. Reserve requirement ratio cuts mainly provide low - cost long - term funds to banks, while interest rate cuts directly drive down interest rates such as LPR. Generally, a 10bp OMO interest rate cut has a more obvious effect than a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut [1]. - Common constraints: The space for monetary policy. The current 7D OMO interest rate is 1.4%. If it is cut by 10bp each time, it will reach the zero - interest rate after 14 cuts. The current deposit reserve ratio of large - scale banks is 7.5%. If it is cut by 0.5 percentage points each time, it will reach the implicit lower limit of 5% after 5 cuts and the theoretical lower limit after 15 cuts [2]. - Unique effect of reserve requirement ratio cuts: Replenish low - cost long - term liquidity. Among mainstream monetary policy tools, only reserve requirement ratio cuts and open - market purchases of treasury bonds can actively inject long - term liquidity into the banking system, while tools like MLF, 7 - day reverse repurchase, and other - term reverse repurchases can only provide medium - and short - term liquidity. Currently, the net purchase volume of open - market treasury bonds is still relatively limited, so reserve requirement ratio cuts are still the main tool for actively injecting long - term liquidity, and the long - term liquidity provided by reserve requirement ratio cuts is low - cost [2]. - Unique constraint of interest rate cuts: The net interest margin of banks. Due to factors such as excessive competition and the scale complex, there are differences in the transmission efficiency of policy interest rate cuts in the deposit and loan markets, resulting in a phased positive correlation between policy interest rates and the net interest margin. In the third quarter of 2025, the net interest margin of commercial banks was 1.42%, the lowest level since statistics began. The significantly low net interest margin not only weakens the ability of banks to support the real economy but also provides a breeding ground for capital hoarding and idling, which restricts the space for interest rate cuts [3].